Can anybody get in on this bet? I would take it as well.
I think the odds of HPMOR winning the Hugo (edited to say: for Best Novel) are far less than one percent. This has nothing to do with my estimation of the literary merits of the fic, and everything to do with my understanding of the literary establishment and its unwillingness to tangle with copyright law.
You know, on reflection I think that this was possibly a kinda snotty way of saying what I wanted to say: that I think gwern is right, and that you’d be better off applying in the Fan Writer category than in the Best Novel category. And I don’t think it’s true that going for the Best Novel is without cost, because you’d be giving up the chance at the Fan Writer award.
I mean, I’m happy to make the bet because I am very confident that I’ll win it, but I don’t actually want to punish you for putting your work out there or shooting for a high goal—which is what it sort of feels like, if I make you pay me when you lose.
I have looked up the rules and apparently, instead of a plurality vote or a majority vote with runoff voting, people rank all the candidates and can put “No Award” above anything they think sufficiently underserving. This does change my odds, but not enough that I wouldn’t try to for a nomination. I’m also not sure that it should change my odds enough not to bet at 20-to-1. How much would you want in for?
I read an interview with Roger Zelazny, and he said that the reason he called the story “No Award” was because he noticed that, since the ballots were alphabetical by author, he always wound up right before No Award. He wanted to have two “No Award”s in a row and cause confusion. Unfortunately for his dastardly plot ( :) ), it didn’t get nominated for anything.
Can anybody get in on this bet? I would take it as well.
I think the odds of HPMOR winning the Hugo (edited to say: for Best Novel) are far less than one percent. This has nothing to do with my estimation of the literary merits of the fic, and everything to do with my understanding of the literary establishment and its unwillingness to tangle with copyright law.
You know, on reflection I think that this was possibly a kinda snotty way of saying what I wanted to say: that I think gwern is right, and that you’d be better off applying in the Fan Writer category than in the Best Novel category. And I don’t think it’s true that going for the Best Novel is without cost, because you’d be giving up the chance at the Fan Writer award.
I mean, I’m happy to make the bet because I am very confident that I’ll win it, but I don’t actually want to punish you for putting your work out there or shooting for a high goal—which is what it sort of feels like, if I make you pay me when you lose.
I have looked up the rules and apparently, instead of a plurality vote or a majority vote with runoff voting, people rank all the candidates and can put “No Award” above anything they think sufficiently underserving. This does change my odds, but not enough that I wouldn’t try to for a nomination. I’m also not sure that it should change my odds enough not to bet at 20-to-1. How much would you want in for?
Cute story I saw 12 days ago on
urth.net:$500 against $25?