A quick estimate (20% unemployment, 20% economics/statistics/CS, 10% would move to DC, readership of 1000), puts the audience at a few percent of a person. Audience decays exponentially with the specificity of the information.
For economics/statistics/CS, I think you may be using the representativeness heuristic—there’s a lot of variation even among people with slightly different brains. I’m reminded of a radio interview I listened to with a woman who had a photographic memory, who had a job as an antiques dealer or something similarly boring. I thought “man, I would totally use that power for good, rather than.. antiques dealing.” But no, many people will grow up and be extremely… ordinary, even if their brains are slightly different. Anyhow, I think you’ll find that 20% is quite a large increase over the base rate—I was being conservative.
As for unemployed people being willing to move to DC… 10% is a total guess, but it’s vaguely based off of unemployed recent college graduates I know. I’m not sure what normal labor mobility actually looks like, though.
The discussion section is overdue for further partitioning.
This was a great thing to share, as would be anything similar that hit a non-negligible percentage of LW users.
A quick estimate (20% unemployment, 20% economics/statistics/CS, 10% would move to DC, readership of 1000), puts the audience at a few percent of a person. Audience decays exponentially with the specificity of the information.
I’d say four upvotes count as evidence that your calculation is wrong. :)
People will upvote pretty much anything :P
Upvoted
I’d guess P(economics/statistics/CS) > 20, and that people’s willingness to move to DC isn’t independent of their unemployment.
For economics/statistics/CS, I think you may be using the representativeness heuristic—there’s a lot of variation even among people with slightly different brains. I’m reminded of a radio interview I listened to with a woman who had a photographic memory, who had a job as an antiques dealer or something similarly boring. I thought “man, I would totally use that power for good, rather than.. antiques dealing.” But no, many people will grow up and be extremely… ordinary, even if their brains are slightly different. Anyhow, I think you’ll find that 20% is quite a large increase over the base rate—I was being conservative.
As for unemployed people being willing to move to DC… 10% is a total guess, but it’s vaguely based off of unemployed recent college graduates I know. I’m not sure what normal labor mobility actually looks like, though.
Isn’t that four people?
I think he’s including 5% on the autism spectrum and 15% having recently graduated college in that estimate.