There are other countries with sound institutions, like Singapore and Japan, but I’m not so worried about them as I am about the West, because they have an eye towards self-preservation. For instance, both those countries have declining birth rates, but they protect their own rule of law (unlike the West), and have more cautious immigration policies that help avoid their population from being replaced by a foreign one (unlike the West). The West, unlike sensible Asian countries, is playing a dangerous game by treating its institutions in a cavalier way for ill-thought-out redistributionist projects and importing leftist voting blocs.
EAs should also be more worried about decline in the West, because Westerners (particularly NW Europeans) are more into charity than other populations (e.g. Eastern Europeans are super-low in charity). My previous post documents this. A Chinese- or Russian- dominated future is really, really bad for EA, for existential risk prevention, and for AI safety.
There are other countries with sound institutions, like Singapore and Japan, but I’m not so worried about them as I am about the West, because they have an eye towards self-preservation.
I wouldn’t be so cavalier about that. Japan, specifically, has about zero immigration and its population, not to mention the workforce, is already falling. Demographics is a bitch. Without any major changes, in a few decades Japan will be a backwater full of old people’s homes that some Chinese trillionaire might decide to buy on a whim and turn into a large theme park.
Open borders and no immigration are like Scylla and Charybdis—neither is a particularly appealing option for a rich and aging country.
I also feel that the question “how much immigration to allow” is overrated. I consider it much less important than the question of “precisely what kind of people should we allow in”. A desirable country has an excellent opportunity to filter a part of its future population and should use it.
I agree that Japan has its own problems. No solutions are particularly good if they can’t get their birth rates up. Singapore also has low birth rates. What problems are preventing high-IQ people from reproducing might be something that EAs should look into.
“How much immigration to allow” and “precisely what kind of people should we allow in” can be related, because the more immigration you allow, the less selective you are probably being, unless you have a long line of qualified applicants. Skepticism of open borders doesn’t require being against immigration in general.
As you say, a filtered immigration population could be very valuable. For example, you could have “open borders” for educated professionals from low-crime, low-corruption areas countries with compatible value systems and who are encouraged to assimilate. I’m pretty sure this isn’t what most open borders advocates mean by “open borders,” though.
The left doesn’t “want” a responsible immigration policy either. For their political goals, they want a large and dissatisfied voting block. And for their signaling goals, it’s much more holy to invite poor, unskilled people rather than skilled professionals who want to assimilate.
I think its clearer then if you say sound institutions rather than the West?
There are other countries with sound institutions, like Singapore and Japan, but I’m not so worried about them as I am about the West, because they have an eye towards self-preservation. For instance, both those countries have declining birth rates, but they protect their own rule of law (unlike the West), and have more cautious immigration policies that help avoid their population from being replaced by a foreign one (unlike the West). The West, unlike sensible Asian countries, is playing a dangerous game by treating its institutions in a cavalier way for ill-thought-out redistributionist projects and importing leftist voting blocs.
EAs should also be more worried about decline in the West, because Westerners (particularly NW Europeans) are more into charity than other populations (e.g. Eastern Europeans are super-low in charity). My previous post documents this. A Chinese- or Russian- dominated future is really, really bad for EA, for existential risk prevention, and for AI safety.
I wouldn’t be so cavalier about that. Japan, specifically, has about zero immigration and its population, not to mention the workforce, is already falling. Demographics is a bitch. Without any major changes, in a few decades Japan will be a backwater full of old people’s homes that some Chinese trillionaire might decide to buy on a whim and turn into a large theme park.
Open borders and no immigration are like Scylla and Charybdis—neither is a particularly appealing option for a rich and aging country.
I also feel that the question “how much immigration to allow” is overrated. I consider it much less important than the question of “precisely what kind of people should we allow in”. A desirable country has an excellent opportunity to filter a part of its future population and should use it.
I agree that Japan has its own problems. No solutions are particularly good if they can’t get their birth rates up. Singapore also has low birth rates. What problems are preventing high-IQ people from reproducing might be something that EAs should look into.
“How much immigration to allow” and “precisely what kind of people should we allow in” can be related, because the more immigration you allow, the less selective you are probably being, unless you have a long line of qualified applicants. Skepticism of open borders doesn’t require being against immigration in general.
As you say, a filtered immigration population could be very valuable. For example, you could have “open borders” for educated professionals from low-crime, low-corruption areas countries with compatible value systems and who are encouraged to assimilate. I’m pretty sure this isn’t what most open borders advocates mean by “open borders,” though.
The left doesn’t “want” a responsible immigration policy either. For their political goals, they want a large and dissatisfied voting block. And for their signaling goals, it’s much more holy to invite poor, unskilled people rather than skilled professionals who want to assimilate.