I am not saying this is literally impossible, but please consider how many people are already trying to do this, and how many of them actually succeed. Many political causes wish they had their own party at the parliament. Many people who desire wealth and power wish they had the ability to control the country. Some of these have thousands of devoted followers. Some of these have tons of money to spend on experts and marketing. And still, most of them fail.
Change opinions of AI developers by a series of individual debates.
I suppose people are already doing this?
hack the USA nuclear weapon and boom the Taiwan
If someone is working on this, they are probably not going to reply here. But, ignoring the difficulty of the task, it is not sure whether doing so would actually improve our chances. On one hand, yeah, humanity could get a few extra years to figure out alignment. On the other hand, I am afraid that the debate around alignment would be utterly poisoned; for most people, the word “alignment” would start to mean “a dangerous terrorist”. So during those extra years there probably wouldn’t be a lot of alignment research done.
To develop rationality with hope to search a way to take over the world in 2 days.
That was kinda the original plan of Less Wrong, which in hindsight probably seems too optimistic. (Even Putin expected three days to take over Ukraine.)
It seems like in real world this is not very important. (Perhaps if we had sufficiently popular and legal prediction markets...)
Rationalists opened a lot of startups, so we are talented.
Different tasks require different levels of talent. Compared to saving the world, creating a successful startup is trivial.
Basically, the answer to “why aren’t people trying harder?” is that many are already trying harder, for years, some of them for decades, and… well, the predictions are not very optimistic.
If you want to create a popular YouTube channel about alignment, definitely go ahead, and I hope you succeed. But this meta work of yelling at people to work harder is not really useful.
Thanks for information about rational youtube channels and other. I have update myself.
In fact, even if someone already do this, I wrote this article to say “it is too early to capitulate”. Even if we have small chances to surviving, we should to do something, not write articles like MIRI announces new “Death With Dignity” strategy and accept the defeat. Because if you accept defeat, you would do nothing after and you won’t increase our chances to surviving (and you would if you don’t accept).
Basically, the answer to “why aren’t people trying harder?” is that many are already trying harder, for years, some of them for decades, and… well, the predictions are not very optimistic.
I see, it’s a interesting point of view I didn’t think about. But it’s a bias. Even if fight have little sense, considering importance of space colonisation, everything else have even less sens. How can you think about “death with dignity”, if your actions can increase probability of human Milky Way on 0.001%?
If someone is working on this, they are probably not going to reply here. But, ignoring the difficulty of the task, it is not sure whether doing so would actually improve our chances. On one hand, yeah, humanity could get a few extra years to figure out alignment. On the other hand, I am afraid that the debate around alignment would be utterly poisoned; for most people, the word “alignment” would start to mean “a dangerous terrorist”. So during those extra years there probably wouldn’t be a lot of alignment research done.
OK, it was too radical. But what’s about “coordinate action of 200 peoples, that obtain a Taiwan visa, start to work as guardians on all chips fabrics and research laboratories. And, if all other’s our plans fall and humanity are about to extinct, this 200 peoples synthesize a lot of nitroglycerin in a garage...”
That’s I mean by organisation we need. If MIRI did it, I wouldn’t know, but my intuition say MIRI did not do it.
So do it more instead of writing articles “How Spend Last 5 Years Of LIfe”.
That was kinda the original plan of Less Wrong, which in hindsight probably seems too optimistic. (Even Putin expected three days to take over Ukraine.)
Continuing this plan is better than nothing (than accept defeat). And… good joke.
MIRI is working on the direct alignment only, isn’t?
Different tasks require different levels of talent. Compared to saving the world, creating a successful startup is trivial
Taboo “saving the world”. I don’t want someone to “save the world”, I just want someone to “create the best youtube channel ever in using a boring theme”… ok, maybe that’s impossible. But maybe that’s possible, who knows.
Some people are already working on it, e.g. Robert Miles, some videos by Rational Animations.
I am not saying this is literally impossible, but please consider how many people are already trying to do this, and how many of them actually succeed. Many political causes wish they had their own party at the parliament. Many people who desire wealth and power wish they had the ability to control the country. Some of these have thousands of devoted followers. Some of these have tons of money to spend on experts and marketing. And still, most of them fail.
I suppose people are already doing this?
If someone is working on this, they are probably not going to reply here. But, ignoring the difficulty of the task, it is not sure whether doing so would actually improve our chances. On one hand, yeah, humanity could get a few extra years to figure out alignment. On the other hand, I am afraid that the debate around alignment would be utterly poisoned; for most people, the word “alignment” would start to mean “a dangerous terrorist”. So during those extra years there probably wouldn’t be a lot of alignment research done.
That was kinda the original plan of Less Wrong, which in hindsight probably seems too optimistic. (Even Putin expected three days to take over Ukraine.)
Something like MIRI?
It seems like in real world this is not very important. (Perhaps if we had sufficiently popular and legal prediction markets...)
Different tasks require different levels of talent. Compared to saving the world, creating a successful startup is trivial.
Basically, the answer to “why aren’t people trying harder?” is that many are already trying harder, for years, some of them for decades, and… well, the predictions are not very optimistic.
If you want to create a popular YouTube channel about alignment, definitely go ahead, and I hope you succeed. But this meta work of yelling at people to work harder is not really useful.
I mostly agree with you.
Thanks for information about rational youtube channels and other. I have update myself.
In fact, even if someone already do this, I wrote this article to say “it is too early to capitulate”. Even if we have small chances to surviving, we should to do something, not write articles like MIRI announces new “Death With Dignity” strategy and accept the defeat. Because if you accept defeat, you would do nothing after and you won’t increase our chances to surviving (and you would if you don’t accept).
I see, it’s a interesting point of view I didn’t think about. But it’s a bias. Even if fight have little sense, considering importance of space colonisation, everything else have even less sens. How can you think about “death with dignity”, if your actions can increase probability of human Milky Way on 0.001%?
OK, it was too radical. But what’s about “coordinate action of 200 peoples, that obtain a Taiwan visa, start to work as guardians on all chips fabrics and research laboratories. And, if all other’s our plans fall and humanity are about to extinct, this 200 peoples synthesize a lot of nitroglycerin in a garage...”
That’s I mean by organisation we need. If MIRI did it, I wouldn’t know, but my intuition say MIRI did not do it.
If the humanity is already about to extinct, the chips were already produced, and you need to (also) blow up the data centers.
Thanks I would note it
My factual disagreement:
So do it more instead of writing articles “How Spend Last 5 Years Of LIfe”.
Continuing this plan is better than nothing (than accept defeat). And… good joke.
MIRI is working on the direct alignment only, isn’t?
Taboo “saving the world”. I don’t want someone to “save the world”, I just want someone to “create the best youtube channel ever in using a boring theme”… ok, maybe that’s impossible. But maybe that’s possible, who knows.