I’d like to be more conscious about my Bayesian-type updates of my beliefs based on general accounts of what people say. So far, I’ve started using a rule-of-thumb that somebody telling me something is so is worth approximately 1 decibel of belief (1/3rd of a bit)
You don’t really believe that. When someone introduces themselves to you under normal circumstances, your probability distribution about what their name is concentrates immensely in a few seconds. See this paper by Robin Hanson for this point and related discussion.
You don’t really believe that. When someone introduces themselves to you under normal circumstances, your probability distribution about what their name is concentrates immensely in a few seconds. See this paper by Robin Hanson for this point and related discussion.