It’s a pretty weird epistemic state to be in, to think that he’s 99% accurate at reading that sort of thing (assuming you mean, he sometimes opens the cage on people who seem from the inside as FDT-theorist-y as you, and 99% of the time they run, and he sometimes doesn’t open the cage on people who seem from the inside as FDT-theorist-y as you, and 99% of them wouldn’t have run (the use of the counterfactual here is suspicious)). But yeah, of course if you’re actually in that epistemic state, you shouldn’t run. That’s just choosing to have a bear released on you.
It’s a pretty weird epistemic state to be in, to think that he’s 99% accurate at reading that sort of thing (assuming you mean, he sometimes opens the cage on people who seem from the inside as FDT-theorist-y as you, and 99% of the time they run, and he sometimes doesn’t open the cage on people who seem from the inside as FDT-theorist-y as you, and 99% of them wouldn’t have run (the use of the counterfactual here is suspicious)). But yeah, of course if you’re actually in that epistemic state, you shouldn’t run. That’s just choosing to have a bear released on you.