I think asking or finding/recognizing good questions rather than giving good answers mediocre questions is probably a highly valuable skill or effort pretty much anywhere we are looking to advance knowledge—or I suppose advance pretty much anything. How well prediction markets will help in producing that . . . worth asking I suspect.
Clearly just predicting time lines does little to resolve a problem or help anyone prioritize their efforts. So as an uninformed outsider, can any of the existing prediction questions be recast into a set of question that do shift the focus on a specific problem and proposed approaches to resolve/address the risk?
Would an abstract search of recent (all?) AI alignment papers perhaps point to a collection of questions that might be then placed on the prediction markets? If so, seems like a great survey effort for an AI student to do some leg work on. (Though I suppose some primitive AI agent might be more fitting and quicker ;-)
I think asking or finding/recognizing good questions rather than giving good answers mediocre questions is probably a highly valuable skill or effort pretty much anywhere we are looking to advance knowledge—or I suppose advance pretty much anything. How well prediction markets will help in producing that . . . worth asking I suspect.
Clearly just predicting time lines does little to resolve a problem or help anyone prioritize their efforts. So as an uninformed outsider, can any of the existing prediction questions be recast into a set of question that do shift the focus on a specific problem and proposed approaches to resolve/address the risk?
Would an abstract search of recent (all?) AI alignment papers perhaps point to a collection of questions that might be then placed on the prediction markets? If so, seems like a great survey effort for an AI student to do some leg work on. (Though I suppose some primitive AI agent might be more fitting and quicker ;-)