I think you should have stated the point more forcefully. It’s insane that we don’t have alignment prediction markets (with high liquidity and real money) given
How adjacent rationality is to forecasting and how many superforecasters are in the community
The number of people-who-want-to-help whose comparative advantage isn’t technical alignment research
There should be a group of expert forecasters who make a (possibly subsidized) living on alignment prediction markets! Alignment researchers should routinely bet thousands on relevant questions!
There’s a huge amount of low-hanging dignity here, I can vividly imagine the cringing in Daith Ilan right now!
I agree, but it’s literally illegal to have real money prediction markets in the US on anything but finance and maybe elections. The only realistic paths are getting it legalized, building an actually nice to use and not scammy crypto prediction market, or accepting legal risk like you’re early Uber
I think you should have stated the point more forcefully. It’s insane that we don’t have alignment prediction markets (with high liquidity and real money) given
How adjacent rationality is to forecasting and how many superforecasters are in the community
The number of people-who-want-to-help whose comparative advantage isn’t technical alignment research
There should be a group of expert forecasters who make a (possibly subsidized) living on alignment prediction markets! Alignment researchers should routinely bet thousands on relevant questions!
There’s a huge amount of low-hanging dignity here, I can vividly imagine the cringing in Daith Ilan right now!
I agree, but it’s literally illegal to have real money prediction markets in the US on anything but finance and maybe elections. The only realistic paths are getting it legalized, building an actually nice to use and not scammy crypto prediction market, or accepting legal risk like you’re early Uber
Illegal to bet? Illegal to host?