pol.is is a tool for aggregating opinions on political subjects from among a lot of people—it takes agree/disagree votes, clusters opinions based on similarity of voting, and ultimately tries to find consensus opinions. It was used in Taiwan to help write ride-share legislation. I’m hoping I can misuse it here for operationalizing prediction market questions. If the “manifold users” like to bet on understandable questions, the “forecasters” like to bet on precise questions, while the “researcher” likes questions about day-to-day work, then perhaps by getting enough people from each “party” to weigh in it will find “consensus” questions that they are simultaneously useful, precise, and popular (and therefore more accurate).
I am unsure if pol.is will actually work better at the 10-100 people level compared to a normal forum. Let’s give it a try anyways!
I’m trying to see if pol.is would be good for this, like so: https://pol.is/4fdjudd23d
pol.is is a tool for aggregating opinions on political subjects from among a lot of people—it takes agree/disagree votes, clusters opinions based on similarity of voting, and ultimately tries to find consensus opinions. It was used in Taiwan to help write ride-share legislation.
I’m hoping I can misuse it here for operationalizing prediction market questions. If the “manifold users” like to bet on understandable questions, the “forecasters” like to bet on precise questions, while the “researcher” likes questions about day-to-day work, then perhaps by getting enough people from each “party” to weigh in it will find “consensus” questions that they are simultaneously useful, precise, and popular (and therefore more accurate).
I am unsure if pol.is will actually work better at the 10-100 people level compared to a normal forum. Let’s give it a try anyways!