I definitely agree on the need for care in switching between variants. It can also be helpful that they can “change the situation” because this can reveal something unspecified about the original variant. Certainly I was helped by making a second variant, as this clarified for me that the probabilities are different from the deity view vs the snake view, because of anthropics.
In the original variant, it’s not specified when exactly players get devoured. Maybe it is instant. Maybe everyone is given a big box that contains either a bazillion dollars, or human-eating snakes, and it opens exactly a year later.
In my variant, I was imagining the god initially created a batch of snakes with uncolored eyes, then played dice, then gave them red or blue eyes. So the snakes, like the players, can have experiences prior to the dice being rolled. And yes, no snakes exist before I start.
(why is the god wicked? No love for snakes...)
I’ll update the text to clarify that no snakes exist until the god of snake creation gets to work.
C) “Some time after this process, you befriended a snake who’s always wearing shades. You find out how he was created. Given this, what is the probability that he has red eyes?”—the answer, following again the same global population argument, is ~50%
I think this is a great crystallization of the paradox. In this scenario, it seems like I should believe I have a 1⁄36 chance of red eyes, and my new friend has a 1⁄2 chance of red eyes. But my friend has had exactly the same experiences as me, and they reason that the probabilities are reversed.
I definitely agree on the need for care in switching between variants. It can also be helpful that they can “change the situation” because this can reveal something unspecified about the original variant. Certainly I was helped by making a second variant, as this clarified for me that the probabilities are different from the deity view vs the snake view, because of anthropics.
In the original variant, it’s not specified when exactly players get devoured. Maybe it is instant. Maybe everyone is given a big box that contains either a bazillion dollars, or human-eating snakes, and it opens exactly a year later.
In my variant, I was imagining the god initially created a batch of snakes with uncolored eyes, then played dice, then gave them red or blue eyes. So the snakes, like the players, can have experiences prior to the dice being rolled. And yes, no snakes exist before I start. (why is the god wicked? No love for snakes...) I’ll update the text to clarify that no snakes exist until the god of snake creation gets to work.
I think this is a great crystallization of the paradox. In this scenario, it seems like I should believe I have a 1⁄36 chance of red eyes, and my new friend has a 1⁄2 chance of red eyes. But my friend has had exactly the same experiences as me, and they reason that the probabilities are reversed.