I see the situation with competing AIs as much more unstable than the one with two opposing armies or countries.
If you want to invade and take over another country, you have to send in your army to their territory to destroy their army, and then you either have to subdue the population or colonize the land with your people. This is hard because it takes a lot of time to move a lot of people, and people can only reproduce and grow up so quickly.
This just seems far, far easier with AI: you can literally “travel” from one datacenter to another in under a second and there exist various drivers that make it fairly simple to utilize other computational resources. An LLM like GPT-4 can make an additional copy of itself in someone else’s data center in under an hour.
Once there’s a slight imbalance in power, I would expect the situation to resolve itself with the more powerful AI completely overpowering and destroying the weaker AI.
This is the main reason why the prospect of “multiple AGIs” gives me no comfort. It just doesn’t seem stable.
I see the situation with competing AIs as much more unstable than the one with two opposing armies or countries.
If you want to invade and take over another country, you have to send in your army to their territory to destroy their army, and then you either have to subdue the population or colonize the land with your people. This is hard because it takes a lot of time to move a lot of people, and people can only reproduce and grow up so quickly.
This just seems far, far easier with AI: you can literally “travel” from one datacenter to another in under a second and there exist various drivers that make it fairly simple to utilize other computational resources. An LLM like GPT-4 can make an additional copy of itself in someone else’s data center in under an hour.
Once there’s a slight imbalance in power, I would expect the situation to resolve itself with the more powerful AI completely overpowering and destroying the weaker AI.
This is the main reason why the prospect of “multiple AGIs” gives me no comfort. It just doesn’t seem stable.