I think the line of thinking here is probably to first separate what is internal economic activities and relationships (think the plumber fixing your clogged drain) and what are external activities and relationships (think international supply chain type settings).
The internal relationships will, for the most part be waiting, though expect to see some movement in who and domestic market shares.
The longer any quarantine goes on the more impact will be seen on the external activities and relationship—loss of exports will be picked up by producers outside the quarantine area where possible. Those relationships may persist resulting in changes in structure of international trade patterns.
The other impact will be on the margin between domestic and international. This might be more difficult to tease out.
Perhaps another aspect is about which country or area is quarantined and when. It’s not clear when one says quarantined for X period of time if we’re talking about one country/area or some entire group of related countries. China is coming out of it’s quarantine now but reports are that it is still suffering from the quarantines in other countries in terms of its export potential.
I think the line of thinking here is probably to first separate what is internal economic activities and relationships (think the plumber fixing your clogged drain) and what are external activities and relationships (think international supply chain type settings).
The internal relationships will, for the most part be waiting, though expect to see some movement in who and domestic market shares.
The longer any quarantine goes on the more impact will be seen on the external activities and relationship—loss of exports will be picked up by producers outside the quarantine area where possible. Those relationships may persist resulting in changes in structure of international trade patterns.
The other impact will be on the margin between domestic and international. This might be more difficult to tease out.
Perhaps another aspect is about which country or area is quarantined and when. It’s not clear when one says quarantined for X period of time if we’re talking about one country/area or some entire group of related countries. China is coming out of it’s quarantine now but reports are that it is still suffering from the quarantines in other countries in terms of its export potential.