I basically agree with “this question really depends on what the counterfactual is.” (And I personally guess the counterfactual is ‘knee-jerk-quarantine response in a couple weeks that is worse than swift action on all dimensions.’)
I still think the question is useful for a couple reasons:
Simplifying the problem
For “what policies should governments do, and/or what should people advocate for?”, the ultimate answer is pretty complex, includes “what you expect the government to do by default, and what do you think the easiest thing to get them to do instead.”
But, answering the simpler question of “how will this affect the economy” helps give some gears to inform the more complicated questions.
What sort of economic trends to brace for
If you think (as I do) that quarantine is basically inevitable, it still matters “what will happen to the economy tho?”, not for deciding what to do about coronavirus, but for how to plan the rest of your life.
I basically agree with “this question really depends on what the counterfactual is.” (And I personally guess the counterfactual is ‘knee-jerk-quarantine response in a couple weeks that is worse than swift action on all dimensions.’)
I still think the question is useful for a couple reasons:
Simplifying the problem
For “what policies should governments do, and/or what should people advocate for?”, the ultimate answer is pretty complex, includes “what you expect the government to do by default, and what do you think the easiest thing to get them to do instead.”
But, answering the simpler question of “how will this affect the economy” helps give some gears to inform the more complicated questions.
What sort of economic trends to brace for
If you think (as I do) that quarantine is basically inevitable, it still matters “what will happen to the economy tho?”, not for deciding what to do about coronavirus, but for how to plan the rest of your life.