I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure if the analogy applies, since it depends a great deal on the selection process. When I learn that Julius Caesar lived from 100-44BCE, or that Stephen Harper lives in the present day, that certainly doesn’t increase my estimated probability of humans dying out within the next hundred years; and if I lack information about humans yet to be born, that’s not surprising in the slightest, whether or not we go extinct soon.
Really it’s the selection process that’s the issue here; I don’t know how to make sense of the question “Which human should I consider myself most likely to be?” I’ve just never been able to nail down precisely what bothers me about the question.
I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure if the analogy applies, since it depends a great deal on the selection process. When I learn that Julius Caesar lived from 100-44BCE, or that Stephen Harper lives in the present day, that certainly doesn’t increase my estimated probability of humans dying out within the next hundred years; and if I lack information about humans yet to be born, that’s not surprising in the slightest, whether or not we go extinct soon.
Really it’s the selection process that’s the issue here; I don’t know how to make sense of the question “Which human should I consider myself most likely to be?” I’ve just never been able to nail down precisely what bothers me about the question.