RE climate science & public outreach, one funny experience I had was reading Steve McIntyre’s blog “Climate Audit” regularly for years. The guy took an interest in paleoclimate reconstructions, and found that the academic literature (and corresponding IPCC report chapter) was full of statistically-illiterate garbage. This shouldn’t be too surprising—the same could be said in a great many academic fields. But it took on a sharp edge in this field because some people got very defensive, and seemed to have the belief that if they conceded any mistakes, or publicly criticized anyone else within the field, than it would immediately get reported on right-wing news media and provide “fodder for skeptics” etc. (And that belief was totally true!)
I’m imagining a hypothetical scenario where, say, climate scientists retracted a chapter of the IPCC report due to unfixable methodological issues. On the one hand, I’d like to believe that knowledgeable people would increase their trust in the IPCC process as a result, and then they would tell their friends etc. On the other hand, it would totally be portrayed as a massive scandal, and ideologues would keep bringing it up for years as a reason not to believe climate science. I dunno, but I vote for honesty and integrity etc., for various reasons, even if it’s bad for opinion polls, which it might or might not be anyway. I’m not too worried about AI alignment people in this regard.
Anyway, in terms of persuasion, I’m all for extreme patience, not ridiculing & vilifying & infantilizing those you hope to win over, not underestimating inferential distances, having your own intellectual house in order, plus the various things you mention in the post :)
seemed to have the belief that if they conceded any mistakes, or publicly criticized anyone else within the field, than it would immediately get reported on right-wing news media and provide “fodder for skeptics” etc. (And that belief was totally true!)
Yup, same problem as with vaccines. Everyone tends to downplay side effects when they happen for fear they’ll stoke the anti-vaxx movement. But ultimately that sort of “lying for a good cause” thing still gets you screwed over, because people aren’t so stupid as to not notice, and if they think you’re biased they’ll believe you even less than they should.
I get the sense that this is also part of what for example set up the current backlash about transition therapy, puberty blockers etc. Even though the science may all be solid, the political heft attached to it is such that it’s hard to imagine that a study pushing in the other direction wouldn’t risk some self-censorship, or some pushback from journals. All done with the intent of trying to normalize the treatment as much as possible, since its adoption rates were likely suboptimal anyway, of course; but it resulted in reduced trust and so now there’s a large swath of people who feel motivated in not believing any of it. It’s a pattern that comes up again and again (happened with multiple things involving COVID too).
RE climate science & public outreach, one funny experience I had was reading Steve McIntyre’s blog “Climate Audit” regularly for years. The guy took an interest in paleoclimate reconstructions, and found that the academic literature (and corresponding IPCC report chapter) was full of statistically-illiterate garbage. This shouldn’t be too surprising—the same could be said in a great many academic fields. But it took on a sharp edge in this field because some people got very defensive, and seemed to have the belief that if they conceded any mistakes, or publicly criticized anyone else within the field, than it would immediately get reported on right-wing news media and provide “fodder for skeptics” etc. (And that belief was totally true!)
I’m imagining a hypothetical scenario where, say, climate scientists retracted a chapter of the IPCC report due to unfixable methodological issues. On the one hand, I’d like to believe that knowledgeable people would increase their trust in the IPCC process as a result, and then they would tell their friends etc. On the other hand, it would totally be portrayed as a massive scandal, and ideologues would keep bringing it up for years as a reason not to believe climate science. I dunno, but I vote for honesty and integrity etc., for various reasons, even if it’s bad for opinion polls, which it might or might not be anyway. I’m not too worried about AI alignment people in this regard.
Anyway, in terms of persuasion, I’m all for extreme patience, not ridiculing & vilifying & infantilizing those you hope to win over, not underestimating inferential distances, having your own intellectual house in order, plus the various things you mention in the post :)
Yup, same problem as with vaccines. Everyone tends to downplay side effects when they happen for fear they’ll stoke the anti-vaxx movement. But ultimately that sort of “lying for a good cause” thing still gets you screwed over, because people aren’t so stupid as to not notice, and if they think you’re biased they’ll believe you even less than they should.
I get the sense that this is also part of what for example set up the current backlash about transition therapy, puberty blockers etc. Even though the science may all be solid, the political heft attached to it is such that it’s hard to imagine that a study pushing in the other direction wouldn’t risk some self-censorship, or some pushback from journals. All done with the intent of trying to normalize the treatment as much as possible, since its adoption rates were likely suboptimal anyway, of course; but it resulted in reduced trust and so now there’s a large swath of people who feel motivated in not believing any of it. It’s a pattern that comes up again and again (happened with multiple things involving COVID too).