Download a bunch of historical stock price information, then ask questions like “Did company X’s stock go up the day after event Y?” (Did IBM go up after the Berlin Wall fell?)
Hmm… this made me think that perhaps two-choice questions are better than true/false questions, because when all the questions have the same two possible answers T/F, there is a base rate of how often the answer “T” is correct which the player should account for. For real life questions with two possible answers like “Who is taller, Alex or Bob?”, there is not really a well-known base rate.
Download a bunch of historical stock price information, then ask questions like “Did company X’s stock go up the day after event Y?” (Did IBM go up after the Berlin Wall fell?)
Hmm… this made me think that perhaps two-choice questions are better than true/false questions, because when all the questions have the same two possible answers T/F, there is a base rate of how often the answer “T” is correct which the player should account for. For real life questions with two possible answers like “Who is taller, Alex or Bob?”, there is not really a well-known base rate.
Thanks!
The problem is, that’s too obscure for most people to even have intuition for it.