In thinking about this, it seems to help me to use the following framework:
“What does one step better/worse look like in category X?”
“How fast could we take those steps?”
It’s tempting to try and describe a variety of worst case scenarios and the winding paths by which we might get there. There’s a sort of Sorites paradox behind Wei_Dai’s fear. When do we go from “things are getting worse” to “it’s probably to late” to you’re on a train to the gulag?
That’s impossible to say. It’s also impossible to sum all the negative trends and say “how bad is it?” Since each trend is hard to compare, we also can’t say “are things getting worse or better overall?”
But there are two things we can do.
One is to designate an arbitrary threshold at which we commit to making a plan for fleeing the country and opening that conversation with our loved ones, and another one at which we actually follow through on it. A good threshold needs to be simple to determine and compelling enough to motivate action—your own and that of others. It might be a good conversation to pre-game without being too serious or specific about it.
The other thing we can do is pick one or two individual trends that we happen to care about, and monitor for whether they’re individually getting better or worse. I think part of why politics kills minds is because we try and take in everything, all at once, and synthesize it all.
Edit:
In that endeavor, perhaps the US Crisis Monitor can be a useful tool.
In thinking about this, it seems to help me to use the following framework:
“What does one step better/worse look like in category X?”
“How fast could we take those steps?”
It’s tempting to try and describe a variety of worst case scenarios and the winding paths by which we might get there. There’s a sort of Sorites paradox behind Wei_Dai’s fear. When do we go from “things are getting worse” to “it’s probably to late” to you’re on a train to the gulag?
That’s impossible to say. It’s also impossible to sum all the negative trends and say “how bad is it?” Since each trend is hard to compare, we also can’t say “are things getting worse or better overall?”
But there are two things we can do.
One is to designate an arbitrary threshold at which we commit to making a plan for fleeing the country and opening that conversation with our loved ones, and another one at which we actually follow through on it. A good threshold needs to be simple to determine and compelling enough to motivate action—your own and that of others. It might be a good conversation to pre-game without being too serious or specific about it.
The other thing we can do is pick one or two individual trends that we happen to care about, and monitor for whether they’re individually getting better or worse. I think part of why politics kills minds is because we try and take in everything, all at once, and synthesize it all.
Edit:
In that endeavor, perhaps the US Crisis Monitor can be a useful tool.