1. Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15:
2. …until Election Day:
3. Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths:
4. Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths:
5. Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths:
6. US has highest official death toll of any country:
7. US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers:
8. NYC widely considered worst-hit US city:
9. China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year:
10. A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World:
11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective:
12. I [Scott] personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed):
13. Someone I [Scott] am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus:
14. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting:
15. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting:
16. General consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous:
17. …and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn:
…
19. At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election:
20. PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day.
POLITICS:
21. Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day:
26. Trump is re-elected President:
27. Democrats keep the House:
28. Republicans keep the Senate:
29. Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1:
30. Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1:
33. Boris still UK PM:
34. No new state leaves EU:
35. UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal:
36. Kim Jong-Un alive and in power:
ECON AND TECH:
37. Dow is above 25,000:
38. …above 30,000:
39. Bitcoin is above $5,000:
40. …above $10,000:
42. Crew Dragon reaches orbit:
43. Starship reaches orbit:
1. Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15:
2. …until Election Day:
3. Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths:
4. Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths:
5. Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths:
6. US has highest official death toll of any country:
7. US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers:
8. NYC widely considered worst-hit US city:
9. China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year:
10. A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World:
11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective:
12. I [Scott] personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed):
13. Someone I [Scott] am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus:
14. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting:
15. General consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting:
16. General consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous:
17. …and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn:
…
19. At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election:
20. PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day.
POLITICS:
21. Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day:
…
26. Trump is re-elected President:
27. Democrats keep the House:
28. Republicans keep the Senate:
29. Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1:
30. Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1:
…
33. Boris still UK PM:
34. No new state leaves EU:
35. UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal:
36. Kim Jong-Un alive and in power:
ECON AND TECH:
37. Dow is above 25,000:
38. …above 30,000:
39. Bitcoin is above $5,000:
40. …above $10,000:
…
42. Crew Dragon reaches orbit:
43. Starship reaches orbit: