Has anyone rolled the die more than once? If not, it’s hard to see how it could converge on that outcome unless everybody that’s betting saw a 3 (even a single person seeing differently should drive the price downward). Therefore, it depends on how many people saw rolls, and you should update as if you’ve seen as many 3s as other people have bet.
You should bet on six if your probability is still higher than 10%.
If the prediction market caused others to update previously then it’s more complicated. Probably you should assume it reflects all available information, and therefore exactly one 3 was seen. Ultimately there’s no good answer because there’s Knightian uncertainty in markets.
Has anyone rolled the die more than once? If not, it’s hard to see how it could converge on that outcome unless everybody that’s betting saw a 3 (even a single person seeing differently should drive the price downward). Therefore, it depends on how many people saw rolls, and you should update as if you’ve seen as many 3s as other people have bet.
You should bet on six if your probability is still higher than 10%.
If the prediction market caused others to update previously then it’s more complicated. Probably you should assume it reflects all available information, and therefore exactly one 3 was seen. Ultimately there’s no good answer because there’s Knightian uncertainty in markets.