I unfortunately don’t think this proves anything relevant. The example just shows that there was one question where the market was very uncertain. This neither tells us how certain the market is in general (that depends on its confidence on other policy questions), nor how good this particular estimate was (that, I would argue, depends on how far along the information chart it was, which is not measurable—but even putting my pet framework aside, it seems intuitively clear “it was 56% and then it happened” doesn’t tell you how much information the market utilized).
The point is that even if voters did everything right and checked prediction markets as part of their decision making algorithm, it wouldn’t help.
This depends on the first point, which again requires looking at a range of policy markets, not just one. And actually, I personally didn’t expect Trump to do any tarrifs at all (was 100% wrong there), so for me, the market would have updated me significantly into the right direction.
Trump says a lot of stuff that he doesn’t do, the set of specific things that presidents don’t do is larger than the set of things they do, and tariffs didn’t even seem like they’d be super popular with his base if in fact they were implemented. So “~nothing is gonna happen wrt tariffs” seemed like the default outcome with not enough evidence to assume otherwise.
I was also not paying a lot of attention to what he was saying. After the election ended, I made a conscious decision to tune out of politics to protect my mental health. So it was a low information take—but I don’t know if paying more attention would have changed my prediction. I still don’t think I actually know why Trump is doing the tariffs, especially to such an extreme extent..
I unfortunately don’t think this proves anything relevant. The example just shows that there was one question where the market was very uncertain. This neither tells us how certain the market is in general (that depends on its confidence on other policy questions), nor how good this particular estimate was (that, I would argue, depends on how far along the information chart it was, which is not measurable—but even putting my pet framework aside, it seems intuitively clear “it was 56% and then it happened” doesn’t tell you how much information the market utilized).
This depends on the first point, which again requires looking at a range of policy markets, not just one. And actually, I personally didn’t expect Trump to do any tarrifs at all (was 100% wrong there), so for me, the market would have updated me significantly into the right direction.
Just curious, how comes? Were you simply not paying attention to what he was saying? Or were you not believing in his promises?
Trump says a lot of stuff that he doesn’t do, the set of specific things that presidents don’t do is larger than the set of things they do, and tariffs didn’t even seem like they’d be super popular with his base if in fact they were implemented. So “~nothing is gonna happen wrt tariffs” seemed like the default outcome with not enough evidence to assume otherwise.
I was also not paying a lot of attention to what he was saying. After the election ended, I made a conscious decision to tune out of politics to protect my mental health. So it was a low information take—but I don’t know if paying more attention would have changed my prediction. I still don’t think I actually know why Trump is doing the tariffs, especially to such an extreme extent..