In the Newcombian situation the lines of causality are different.
What’s in the box is explicitly caused by what you will choose, …
I find that the term “cause” or “causality” can be very misleading in this situation.
As a matter of terminology, I actually agree with you: in lay speech, I see nothing wrong with saying that “One-boxing causes the sealed box to be filled”, because this is exactly how we perceive causality in the world.
However, when speaking of these problems, theorists nail down their terminology as best they can. And in such problems, standard usage is such that the concept of causality only applies to cases where an event changes things solely in the future[1], not merely where it reveals you to be in a situation in which a past event has happened.
When speaking of decision-theoretic problems, it is important to stick to this definition of causality, counter-intuitive though it may be.
Another example of the distinction is in Drescher’s Good and Real. Consider this: if you raise your hand (in a deterministic universe), you are setting the universe’s state 1 billion years ago to be such that a chain of events will unfold in a way that, 1 billion years later, you will raise your hand. In a (lay) sense, raising your hand “caused” that state.
However, because that state is in the past, it violates decision-theoretic usage to say that you caused that state; instead, you should simply say that either:
a) there is an acausal relationship between your choice to raise your hand and that state of the universe, or b) by choosing to raise your hand, you have learned about a past state of universe. (Just as deciding whether to exit in the Absent-Minded Driver problem tells you something about which exit you are at.)
[1] or, in timeless formalisms, where the cause screens off that which it causes.
I think you’ve misunderstood me. “What you will choose” is a fact that exists before omega fills the boxes.
This fact determines how the boxes are filled.
“What you will choose” (some people seem to refer to this, or something similar, as your “disposition”, but I find my terminology more immediately apparent) causes the future event “how the boxes are filled”
I find that the term “cause” or “causality” can be very misleading in this situation.
As a matter of terminology, I actually agree with you: in lay speech, I see nothing wrong with saying that “One-boxing causes the sealed box to be filled”, because this is exactly how we perceive causality in the world.
However, when speaking of these problems, theorists nail down their terminology as best they can. And in such problems, standard usage is such that the concept of causality only applies to cases where an event changes things solely in the future[1], not merely where it reveals you to be in a situation in which a past event has happened.
When speaking of decision-theoretic problems, it is important to stick to this definition of causality, counter-intuitive though it may be.
Another example of the distinction is in Drescher’s Good and Real. Consider this: if you raise your hand (in a deterministic universe), you are setting the universe’s state 1 billion years ago to be such that a chain of events will unfold in a way that, 1 billion years later, you will raise your hand. In a (lay) sense, raising your hand “caused” that state.
However, because that state is in the past, it violates decision-theoretic usage to say that you caused that state; instead, you should simply say that either:
a) there is an acausal relationship between your choice to raise your hand and that state of the universe, or
b) by choosing to raise your hand, you have learned about a past state of universe. (Just as deciding whether to exit in the Absent-Minded Driver problem tells you something about which exit you are at.)
[1] or, in timeless formalisms, where the cause screens off that which it causes.
I think you’ve misunderstood me. “What you will choose” is a fact that exists before omega fills the boxes.
This fact determines how the boxes are filled.
“What you will choose” (some people seem to refer to this, or something similar, as your “disposition”, but I find my terminology more immediately apparent) causes the future event “how the boxes are filled”
Oh, sorry. Some of this stuff is just tough to parse, but your points are correct.
I’ll leave up the previous post because it’s an important thing to keep in mind.
Indeed. I’ll try to be clearer in future.
That isn’t relevant. For all you know, Omega also created the universe, and so set it in the situation that disposed you to choose the way you did.
When the game actually begins, you cannot change your disposition, and you cannot change the million dollars.