Exactly. Self-Replicating robotics on Earth is a global instant victory condition. Completion of one would result in machines that could double their production exponentially, leading to practically infinite production capability within no time.
Per Robin Hanson, a machine shop can put out its own mass in equipment in roughly a month or two. And yet, the economy doesn’t double every month, or even every year. Why not?
There seems to be a fair chance the reasons are mostly rooted in cognitive biases, cumulative coordination mistakes, economic rent-seeking, and so on—not anything technological.
A well planned lunar or orbital mission might well be free of these issues. Space conditions are mechanically simpler in some respects, so there’s a stronger case for pre-planning everything rather than requiring a market economy to make it work. Supporting structures are less needed, transit is less two dimensional, and solar energy can be harvested at scale with low costs in equipment density. There is also instant access to ultra-high vacuum conditions which are useful for refining. And in addition to the endless cheap sunlight, there’s no anti-nuclear lobby which can claim it’s in their back yard.
Suggesting self-replicating robotics is akin to saying we should just solve this whole not being post-scarcity problem.
Maybe we should solve this whole not being post-scarcity problem...
Per Robin Hanson, a machine shop can put out its own mass in equipment in roughly a month or two. And yet, the economy doesn’t double every month, or even every year. Why not?
If we switch the example to an excavator which outputs its own mass in an hour or two, does the answer to your question become clearer?
A quick process like that is pretty much insignificant compared to a month or two, let alone 15 years. Unless there are tens of thousands of other steps in the chain of comparable length, it doesn’t come close to explaining it.
As I see it, there are roughly four steps:
Excavating.
Refining.
Power collecting.
Manufacturing.
The ones towards the end seem to be the biggest time sinks. However, power collection should not raise it by more than a factor of two or so. I don’t think it takes many months to mine enough coal to pay for the energy costs of coal mining equipment, for example.
Per Robin Hanson, a machine shop can put out its own mass in equipment in roughly a month or two. And yet, the economy doesn’t double every month, or even every year. Why not?
There seems to be a fair chance the reasons are mostly rooted in cognitive biases, cumulative coordination mistakes, economic rent-seeking, and so on—not anything technological.
A well planned lunar or orbital mission might well be free of these issues. Space conditions are mechanically simpler in some respects, so there’s a stronger case for pre-planning everything rather than requiring a market economy to make it work. Supporting structures are less needed, transit is less two dimensional, and solar energy can be harvested at scale with low costs in equipment density. There is also instant access to ultra-high vacuum conditions which are useful for refining. And in addition to the endless cheap sunlight, there’s no anti-nuclear lobby which can claim it’s in their back yard.
Maybe we should solve this whole not being post-scarcity problem...
If we switch the example to an excavator which outputs its own mass in an hour or two, does the answer to your question become clearer?
A quick process like that is pretty much insignificant compared to a month or two, let alone 15 years. Unless there are tens of thousands of other steps in the chain of comparable length, it doesn’t come close to explaining it.
As I see it, there are roughly four steps:
Excavating.
Refining.
Power collecting.
Manufacturing.
The ones towards the end seem to be the biggest time sinks. However, power collection should not raise it by more than a factor of two or so. I don’t think it takes many months to mine enough coal to pay for the energy costs of coal mining equipment, for example.