Per Robin Hanson, a machine shop can put out its own mass in equipment in roughly a month or two. And yet, the economy doesn’t double every month, or even every year. Why not?
If we switch the example to an excavator which outputs its own mass in an hour or two, does the answer to your question become clearer?
A quick process like that is pretty much insignificant compared to a month or two, let alone 15 years. Unless there are tens of thousands of other steps in the chain of comparable length, it doesn’t come close to explaining it.
As I see it, there are roughly four steps:
Excavating.
Refining.
Power collecting.
Manufacturing.
The ones towards the end seem to be the biggest time sinks. However, power collection should not raise it by more than a factor of two or so. I don’t think it takes many months to mine enough coal to pay for the energy costs of coal mining equipment, for example.
If we switch the example to an excavator which outputs its own mass in an hour or two, does the answer to your question become clearer?
A quick process like that is pretty much insignificant compared to a month or two, let alone 15 years. Unless there are tens of thousands of other steps in the chain of comparable length, it doesn’t come close to explaining it.
As I see it, there are roughly four steps:
Excavating.
Refining.
Power collecting.
Manufacturing.
The ones towards the end seem to be the biggest time sinks. However, power collection should not raise it by more than a factor of two or so. I don’t think it takes many months to mine enough coal to pay for the energy costs of coal mining equipment, for example.