Well, in politics, you’re dealing with an issue where enforcing compliance would be difficult. It’s famously hard to get a politician to give a clear answer to a clear question.
I think that partly, the idea of forecasting as practiced by Tetlock et al is just relatively new. It hasn’t seeped into society to the extent that it might someday. Companies probably need to be of a certain size to make such tournaments seem worthwhile.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if some companies do in fact run internal forecasting competitions or prediction markets. The Pentagon tried running a prediction market to identify security threats, but shut it down when it was criticized as as “terrorism futures market.”
My particular interest is not the macro question of “why isn’t this done more,” but the micro question of “what’s the easiest way that an individual or small group could start a forecasting competition?”
One way is to build better prediction markets. If we would have better prediction markets that move a decent chunk of money those prediction could be used.
Another is to think through the application of forcasting in individual fields. In my post on cancer I for example wrote about Prediction-Based Medicine for compassionate use. While it’s likely impossible to convince people of Prediction-Based Medicine for those decisions that are currently allegedly made via Evidence-Based Medicine campaigning for it being used for in cases where compassionate use is currently done without any need for any evidence might be more promising.
On the one hand you have people who don’t like that doctors can promise patients whatever they want in cases of compassionate use and on the other hand you have people who find compassionate use important because it allows patients to get life saving drugs before they are approved by the FDA. Prediction-Based Medicine looks to me like a great compromize between the two sides.
When it comes to computer programming on tool I would like to see is a program that asks you to make a prediction whenever you run your unit test about whether or not those unit tests will fail.
There are a lot of cases of specific expertise where it’s worth thinking about how to build forcasting based systems for them.
When it comes to journalism, a new way to do journalism can be invented that works on the Blockchain. It’s possible to raise sizeable amounts of capital in ICO’s if you have a well thought out idea.
Well, in politics, you’re dealing with an issue where enforcing compliance would be difficult. It’s famously hard to get a politician to give a clear answer to a clear question.
I think that partly, the idea of forecasting as practiced by Tetlock et al is just relatively new. It hasn’t seeped into society to the extent that it might someday. Companies probably need to be of a certain size to make such tournaments seem worthwhile.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if some companies do in fact run internal forecasting competitions or prediction markets. The Pentagon tried running a prediction market to identify security threats, but shut it down when it was criticized as as “terrorism futures market.”
My particular interest is not the macro question of “why isn’t this done more,” but the micro question of “what’s the easiest way that an individual or small group could start a forecasting competition?”
One way is to build better prediction markets. If we would have better prediction markets that move a decent chunk of money those prediction could be used.
Another is to think through the application of forcasting in individual fields. In my post on cancer I for example wrote about Prediction-Based Medicine for compassionate use. While it’s likely impossible to convince people of Prediction-Based Medicine for those decisions that are currently allegedly made via Evidence-Based Medicine campaigning for it being used for in cases where compassionate use is currently done without any need for any evidence might be more promising.
On the one hand you have people who don’t like that doctors can promise patients whatever they want in cases of compassionate use and on the other hand you have people who find compassionate use important because it allows patients to get life saving drugs before they are approved by the FDA. Prediction-Based Medicine looks to me like a great compromize between the two sides.
When it comes to computer programming on tool I would like to see is a program that asks you to make a prediction whenever you run your unit test about whether or not those unit tests will fail.
There are a lot of cases of specific expertise where it’s worth thinking about how to build forcasting based systems for them.
When it comes to journalism, a new way to do journalism can be invented that works on the Blockchain. It’s possible to raise sizeable amounts of capital in ICO’s if you have a well thought out idea.