I feel there’s often a wrong assumption in probabilistic reasoning, something like moderate probabilities for everything by default? after all, if you say you’re 70⁄30 nobody who disagrees will ostracize you like if you say 99⁄1.
“If alignment is easy I want to believe alignment is easy. If alignment is hard I want to believe alignment is hard. I will work to form accurate beliefs”
I feel there’s often a wrong assumption in probabilistic reasoning, something like moderate probabilities for everything by default? after all, if you say you’re 70⁄30 nobody who disagrees will ostracize you like if you say 99⁄1.
“If alignment is easy I want to believe alignment is easy. If alignment is hard I want to believe alignment is hard. I will work to form accurate beliefs”