See overcomingbias for some blogposts on betting, and some good reasons as to why people don’t bet on such things (especially in the comments, and in the second post, since the first post was in favor of bets)
and some good reasons as to why people don’t bet on such things (especially in the comments, and in the second post
I read the second post as listing the various social advantages gained by not betting. Those are good reasons for social advantage.
But when you’re interested in the truth, they’re not good reasons. Converting social advantage talky talk into actions with consequences tied to the truth helps in two way.
The first way is the aforementioned “Put up, or shut up.” Putting some skin in the game focuses the mind, and reveals true preferences.
The second way is more important. Making a bet entails converting all the talky talk into a testable proposition dependent on specific measurements.
Or at least it does if at least one of the bettors is actually concerned with the truth, and competent to formulate the proposition. Two social weasels could easily agree to a bet with ambiguous terms.
I’m not willing to pay excessive costs to prove myself right. Bear in mind that social costs are still costs.
I’m also not willing to impose excessive costs on others as part of proving myself right. Consider that if betting becomes widespread, it may have the effect that poor people are locked out of intellectual circles.
I’m also not willing to take excessive risks to prove myself right. If I have a 95% chance of being right, but the loss for the 5% chance of being mistaken is large enough that I’m risk averse about it, I’m not going to make the bet.
Some of those reasons are perverse incentives. For instance, if I am going to bet on X, that gives me a financial interest in not convincing people of X, and in weakening my arguments for X. (That’s not in the posts, but it is in the comments.)
Furthermore, if I believe X,I don’t need to bet on X to convince myself of it—after all, I believe it already! I’d be making the bet to convince other people. Needless to say, many of the problems with betting directly relate to convincing other people.
See overcomingbias for some blogposts on betting, and some good reasons as to why people don’t bet on such things (especially in the comments, and in the second post, since the first post was in favor of bets)
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2013/07/bets-argue.html
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2013/07/why-do-bets-look-bad.html
I read the second post as listing the various social advantages gained by not betting. Those are good reasons for social advantage.
But when you’re interested in the truth, they’re not good reasons. Converting social advantage talky talk into actions with consequences tied to the truth helps in two way.
The first way is the aforementioned “Put up, or shut up.” Putting some skin in the game focuses the mind, and reveals true preferences.
The second way is more important. Making a bet entails converting all the talky talk into a testable proposition dependent on specific measurements.
Or at least it does if at least one of the bettors is actually concerned with the truth, and competent to formulate the proposition. Two social weasels could easily agree to a bet with ambiguous terms.
I’m not willing to pay excessive costs to prove myself right. Bear in mind that social costs are still costs.
I’m also not willing to impose excessive costs on others as part of proving myself right. Consider that if betting becomes widespread, it may have the effect that poor people are locked out of intellectual circles.
I’m also not willing to take excessive risks to prove myself right. If I have a 95% chance of being right, but the loss for the 5% chance of being mistaken is large enough that I’m risk averse about it, I’m not going to make the bet.
Some of those reasons are perverse incentives. For instance, if I am going to bet on X, that gives me a financial interest in not convincing people of X, and in weakening my arguments for X. (That’s not in the posts, but it is in the comments.)
Furthermore, if I believe X,I don’t need to bet on X to convince myself of it—after all, I believe it already! I’d be making the bet to convince other people. Needless to say, many of the problems with betting directly relate to convincing other people.