I don’t know what you mean by the last part. Perhaps you mean that I could have deep biases, blinding me from an objective analysis here. Can you clarify?
Sure. My meaning is perhaps essentially as you say, but with rather different emphasis. I do not think that it is terribly useful to look for personal biases here (and it seems unlikely that you should have any unique or unusual bias in this regard).
It seems more likely (or in any case it’s more fruitful to approach the matter thus) that the bias is “in the water”, so to speak. Neophilia (and its complement, which the internet informs me should be called ‘paliophobia’) is deeply ingrained in modern Western culture. The assumption of progress, too, is deeply ingrained (the OP is hardly making a novel or surprising argument, for instance). From this it follows that anyone who prefers the old to the new, in any context, cannot be doing so for any ‘rational’ reason. And thus when you hear that someone has this preference, you assume that it’s due to nostalgia, etc.
But the consequence of this is that it’s more difficult for you to notice cases where the old is better than the new. You see that someone prefers the old; you say “ah, mere nostalgia”; you therefore do not investigate the question of why they prefer the old to the new (and why would you, if you already have the answer?); and so you never get the chance to learn whether, in this case, the old is better, even if that is actually true.
Of course this is nothing but another of (as Eliezer once put it) the thousand faces of confirmation bias (and thus should not at all surprise us).
I apologize, by the way, for this blatant Bulverism. I don’t actually know, to any great degree of certainty, whether your views on this topic are informed largely (or even partially) by any bias of this kind! I am quite ready to accept a denial of any such fault in you, personally.
I only want to point out that it is a very common sort of distortion, easily discernible in many, many discussions like this. I’ve encountered it more times than I can count. I think that it’s very much worth being wary of it, and perhaps even worth making a special effort to counteract.
Neophilia (and its complement, which the internet informs me should be called ‘paliophobia’) is deeply ingrained in modern Western culture. The assumption of progress, too, is deeply ingrained (the OP is hardly making a novel or surprising argument, for instance).
Consider a few facts for a moment,
“In 1982, the second major study of [the hostile media effect] was undertaken; pro-Palestinian students and pro-Israeli students at Stanford University were shown the same news filmstrips pertaining to the then-recent Sabra and Shatila massacre of Palestinian refugees by Christian Lebanese militia fighters abetted by the Israeli army in Beirut during the Lebanese Civil War. On a number of objective measures, both sides found that these identical news clips were slanted in favor of the other side.”
Economist Paul Krugman writes, “the obvious bias in things like acceptance of papers at major journals is towards, not against, a doctrinaire free-market view.” Whereas economist Bryan Caplan claims, “Even among economists, market-oriented policy prescriptions are often seen as too dogmatic.”
69 to 25 percent of Republicans and Democrats believe big tech is biased in favor of liberals, compared to 5 to 19 percent of Republicans and Democrats believing big tech is biased in favor of conservatives.
Now consider, regarding the assumption of progress,
In the United states, 41 percent believe that things are worse now than they were 50 years ago, compared to 37 percent who believe it is better. When you ask people about finances specifically, this goes to 45 percent compared to 32 percent compared to 20 years ago, with differences being larger in Greece, the UK, Italy, France and Spain—nations traditionally considered at the heart of Western culture.
“More than two-thirds (68%) of U.S. respondents said they think today’s children will be financially worse off as adults than their parents, up from 60% in 2019. Only 32% think children will be better off.” Source.
In 2017, “Four in ten Americans (39%) think the odds that global warming will cause humans to become extinct are 50% or higher.”
I’m sure you’re familiar with these types of facts. I could continue with them, but I don’t think it’s necessary to add much more for the point I’m trying to make.
The first set of facts, I believe, collectively implies that people are not consistently able to read whether a particular culture is actually biased in the way they claim. Often, an accusation of bias reveals the opposite: namely that the speaker is biased themselves.
The interpretation of bias comes from the fact that the world is not far enough in the direction of how the speaker wants it to be, even if it is indeed quite far. It’s easier to see the biases in other people than to see the biases in yourself. Hence how you can get Paul Krugman writing about how market fundamentalism rules his field, all the while his own Nobel Prize speaks to the opposite truth.
I’m not just accusing you of just the same thing. I do suspect that you are doing something like the equivalent of what Paul Krugman does, as your top comment is currently upvoted more highly than the post itself. But this is not the entirety of my objection.
Instead I’d just ask you to consider as a test of your thesis, to propose an actual general measure for progress in consumer goods.
Imagine a world in which, over time, we expect 15% of things to get worse and 85% of things to get better. In such a world, one could spend an inordinate amount of time finding example after example of things that have gotten worse, because there are a lot of consumer goods. But that would prove approximately nothing, as it would ignore the 85% of goods that got better.
I understand that such a measure would be difficult to construct. The inherent subjectivity of the subject is what makes it difficult. But, perhaps as Richard Feynman once said, “‘Oh you’re dealing with psychological matters. These things can’t be defined so precisely.’ Yes, but then you can’t claim to know anything about it.”
Hang on, though. Before I respond to the rest of your comment, I want to point out that the second set of bullet points you list do not have anything at all to do with what I am talking about. You see that, yes? (Or were those points not meant to be responsive to the quoted bit from my comment? But in that case, what is their significance…?)
Before I respond to the rest of your comment, I want to point out that the second set of bullet points you list do not have anything at all to do with what I am talking about. You see that, yes?
You stated,
The assumption of progress, too, is deeply ingrained (the OP is hardly making a novel or surprising argument, for instance).
I interpreted the assumption of progress as referring to one of these two possibilities,
The world has gotten better
The world will get better in the future
This makes a lot of sense considering Jason Crawford’s other posts.
My first bullet point addresses the first interpretation. It points out that the assumption of progress is not “deeply ingrained” as you claimed. It seems more that about half of people, or less, believe that the world has gotten better.
My other two bullet points address the second interpretation of the assumption of progress.
Neither of those interpretations are (a) what I meant, nor (b) entailed by the OP.
There are also several other serious problems with the points you made, having to do with their provenance, the possibility of sensibly interpreting them, etc.
However, I’m afraid I am becoming increasingly uncertain that it’s productive to continue this conversation…
I am interested in a direct way of testing this hypothesis. The part about the assumption of progress was a minor digression. I hope you will understand.
The specific aim I had was to dispel the objection that I was merely biased. I may be biased. In fact, I probably am. But these sorts of arguments don’t normally lead anywhere. People pick “sides” and accuse the other side of being biased. But, as you wrote yourself, what matters is what’s actually true.
Sure. My meaning is perhaps essentially as you say, but with rather different emphasis. I do not think that it is terribly useful to look for personal biases here (and it seems unlikely that you should have any unique or unusual bias in this regard).
It seems more likely (or in any case it’s more fruitful to approach the matter thus) that the bias is “in the water”, so to speak. Neophilia (and its complement, which the internet informs me should be called ‘paliophobia’) is deeply ingrained in modern Western culture. The assumption of progress, too, is deeply ingrained (the OP is hardly making a novel or surprising argument, for instance). From this it follows that anyone who prefers the old to the new, in any context, cannot be doing so for any ‘rational’ reason. And thus when you hear that someone has this preference, you assume that it’s due to nostalgia, etc.
But the consequence of this is that it’s more difficult for you to notice cases where the old is better than the new. You see that someone prefers the old; you say “ah, mere nostalgia”; you therefore do not investigate the question of why they prefer the old to the new (and why would you, if you already have the answer?); and so you never get the chance to learn whether, in this case, the old is better, even if that is actually true.
Of course this is nothing but another of (as Eliezer once put it) the thousand faces of confirmation bias (and thus should not at all surprise us).
I apologize, by the way, for this blatant Bulverism. I don’t actually know, to any great degree of certainty, whether your views on this topic are informed largely (or even partially) by any bias of this kind! I am quite ready to accept a denial of any such fault in you, personally.
I only want to point out that it is a very common sort of distortion, easily discernible in many, many discussions like this. I’ve encountered it more times than I can count. I think that it’s very much worth being wary of it, and perhaps even worth making a special effort to counteract.
Consider a few facts for a moment,
“In 1982, the second major study of [the hostile media effect] was undertaken; pro-Palestinian students and pro-Israeli students at Stanford University were shown the same news filmstrips pertaining to the then-recent Sabra and Shatila massacre of Palestinian refugees by Christian Lebanese militia fighters abetted by the Israeli army in Beirut during the Lebanese Civil War. On a number of objective measures, both sides found that these identical news clips were slanted in favor of the other side.”
Economist Paul Krugman writes, “the obvious bias in things like acceptance of papers at major journals is towards, not against, a doctrinaire free-market view.” Whereas economist Bryan Caplan claims, “Even among economists, market-oriented policy prescriptions are often seen as too dogmatic.”
69 to 25 percent of Republicans and Democrats believe big tech is biased in favor of liberals, compared to 5 to 19 percent of Republicans and Democrats believing big tech is biased in favor of conservatives.
Now consider, regarding the assumption of progress,
In the United states, 41 percent believe that things are worse now than they were 50 years ago, compared to 37 percent who believe it is better. When you ask people about finances specifically, this goes to 45 percent compared to 32 percent compared to 20 years ago, with differences being larger in Greece, the UK, Italy, France and Spain—nations traditionally considered at the heart of Western culture.
“More than two-thirds (68%) of U.S. respondents said they think today’s children will be financially worse off as adults than their parents, up from 60% in 2019. Only 32% think children will be better off.” Source.
In 2017, “Four in ten Americans (39%) think the odds that global warming will cause humans to become extinct are 50% or higher.”
I’m sure you’re familiar with these types of facts. I could continue with them, but I don’t think it’s necessary to add much more for the point I’m trying to make.
The first set of facts, I believe, collectively implies that people are not consistently able to read whether a particular culture is actually biased in the way they claim. Often, an accusation of bias reveals the opposite: namely that the speaker is biased themselves.
The interpretation of bias comes from the fact that the world is not far enough in the direction of how the speaker wants it to be, even if it is indeed quite far. It’s easier to see the biases in other people than to see the biases in yourself. Hence how you can get Paul Krugman writing about how market fundamentalism rules his field, all the while his own Nobel Prize speaks to the opposite truth.
I’m not just accusing you of just the same thing. I do suspect that you are doing something like the equivalent of what Paul Krugman does, as your top comment is currently upvoted more highly than the post itself. But this is not the entirety of my objection.
Instead I’d just ask you to consider as a test of your thesis, to propose an actual general measure for progress in consumer goods.
Imagine a world in which, over time, we expect 15% of things to get worse and 85% of things to get better. In such a world, one could spend an inordinate amount of time finding example after example of things that have gotten worse, because there are a lot of consumer goods. But that would prove approximately nothing, as it would ignore the 85% of goods that got better.
I understand that such a measure would be difficult to construct. The inherent subjectivity of the subject is what makes it difficult. But, perhaps as Richard Feynman once said, “‘Oh you’re dealing with psychological matters. These things can’t be defined so precisely.’ Yes, but then you can’t claim to know anything about it.”
Hang on, though. Before I respond to the rest of your comment, I want to point out that the second set of bullet points you list do not have anything at all to do with what I am talking about. You see that, yes? (Or were those points not meant to be responsive to the quoted bit from my comment? But in that case, what is their significance…?)
You stated,
I interpreted the assumption of progress as referring to one of these two possibilities,
The world has gotten better
The world will get better in the future
This makes a lot of sense considering Jason Crawford’s other posts.
My first bullet point addresses the first interpretation. It points out that the assumption of progress is not “deeply ingrained” as you claimed. It seems more that about half of people, or less, believe that the world has gotten better.
My other two bullet points address the second interpretation of the assumption of progress.
Neither of those interpretations are (a) what I meant, nor (b) entailed by the OP.
There are also several other serious problems with the points you made, having to do with their provenance, the possibility of sensibly interpreting them, etc.
However, I’m afraid I am becoming increasingly uncertain that it’s productive to continue this conversation…
Look, forget the specific bullet points for now.
I am interested in a direct way of testing this hypothesis. The part about the assumption of progress was a minor digression. I hope you will understand.
The specific aim I had was to dispel the objection that I was merely biased. I may be biased. In fact, I probably am. But these sorts of arguments don’t normally lead anywhere. People pick “sides” and accuse the other side of being biased. But, as you wrote yourself, what matters is what’s actually true.