I think it’s ~1000 for that day. I don’t know how long deaths take to bear out—is it 14 days? If it’s that, then if we have ~34 deaths in 14 days then that suggests this prediction is right.
We probably have a greater than average transmission rate/doubling time because no one is tracking it, and I’m pessimistic enough about the U.S. healthcare system at by this point that we may not even be tracking fatalities accurately.
I will update my answer as I think about this more clearly.
I think it’s ~1000 for that day. I don’t know how long deaths take to bear out—is it 14 days? If it’s that, then if we have ~34 deaths in 14 days then that suggests this prediction is right.
We probably have a greater than average transmission rate/doubling time because no one is tracking it, and I’m pessimistic enough about the U.S. healthcare system at by this point that we may not even be tracking fatalities accurately.
I will update my answer as I think about this more clearly.