Good point. It might be that there are very few business ideas that actually are rational to have confidence in—otherwise, someone probably would have implemented them already. In other words, most business ideas, even the ones that turn out to be good ones, might be inherently bad gambles a priori.
It’s also possible that business ideas aren’t actually all that important, and that other factors dominate the success of a start-up. I believe this is essentially Paul Graham’s position, for what that matters.
Good point. It might be that there are very few business ideas that actually are rational to have confidence in—otherwise, someone probably would have implemented them already. In other words, most business ideas, even the ones that turn out to be good ones, might be inherently bad gambles a priori.
It’s also possible that business ideas aren’t actually all that important, and that other factors dominate the success of a start-up. I believe this is essentially Paul Graham’s position, for what that matters.