This seems like a difficult situation because they need to refer to the particular way-of-betting that they are talking about, and the common name for that way-of-betting is “the gambler’s fallacy”, and so they can’t avoid the implication that this way-of-betting is based on fallacious reasoning except by identifying the way-of-betting in some less-recognizable way, which trades off against other principles of good communication.
I suppose they could insert the phrase “so-called”. i.e. “Bayesians commit the so-called Gambler’s Fallacy”. (That still funges against the virtue of brevity, though not exorbitantly.)
But the point of the post is to use that as a simplified model of a more general phenomenon, that should cling to your notions connected to “gambler’s fallacy”.
A title like yours is more technically defensible and closer to the math, but it renounces an important part. The bolder claim is actually there and intentional.
It reminds me of a lot of academic papers where it’s very difficult to see what all that math is there for.
To be clear, I second making the title less confident. I think your suggestion exceeds in the other direction. It omits content.
Are “switchy” and “streaky” accepted terms-of-art? I wasn’t previously familiar with them and my attempts to Google them mostly lead back to this exact paper, which makes me think this paper probably coined them.
Yeah, I definitely did not think they’re standard terms, but they’re pretty expressive. I mean, you can use terms-that-you-define-in-the-post in the title.
This seems like a difficult situation because they need to refer to the particular way-of-betting that they are talking about, and the common name for that way-of-betting is “the gambler’s fallacy”, and so they can’t avoid the implication that this way-of-betting is based on fallacious reasoning except by identifying the way-of-betting in some less-recognizable way, which trades off against other principles of good communication.
I suppose they could insert the phrase “so-called”. i.e. “Bayesians commit the so-called Gambler’s Fallacy”. (That still funges against the virtue of brevity, though not exorbitantly.)
What would you have titled this result?
With ~2 min of thought, “Uniform distributions provide asymmetrical evidence against switchy and streaky priors”
But the point of the post is to use that as a simplified model of a more general phenomenon, that should cling to your notions connected to “gambler’s fallacy”.
A title like yours is more technically defensible and closer to the math, but it renounces an important part. The bolder claim is actually there and intentional.
It reminds me of a lot of academic papers where it’s very difficult to see what all that math is there for.
To be clear, I second making the title less confident. I think your suggestion exceeds in the other direction. It omits content.
Are “switchy” and “streaky” accepted terms-of-art? I wasn’t previously familiar with them and my attempts to Google them mostly lead back to this exact paper, which makes me think this paper probably coined them.
Yeah, I definitely did not think they’re standard terms, but they’re pretty expressive. I mean, you can use terms-that-you-define-in-the-post in the title.