I Send you $X Immediately, You pay out $200*X if I win
I want a 5 year time horizon.
I am betting that one of the “very weird” hypotheses turns out true. Bet resolves in my favor if within 5 years its determined that >0 UAP are explained by:
Literal aliens
Magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon
Time travel
Leftovers of an ancient civilization / Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
Explicitly excluding merely hyper-advanced human tech
I forfeit any and all potential “gotcha” cases.
Determination of resolution to be up to you.
I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]
Please let me know what your maximum payout you swear to be good for would be, and Ill send you 1/200th that today, up to a maximum of 5K.
If these terms are acceptable, please provide a means for me to pay you. I would prefer a crypto address, but will make whatever work. Upon payment please post an acknowledgement of payment.
I offer the same terms to anyone else [with a nontrivial post history].
I assume you mean the central example, some indisputably organic entities arriving from another star system on something indisputably like a “spacecraft”
Magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon
Hmm, I don’t even know how to identify something like that.
Time travel
Yeah, I’d bet against that one, no problem. If time travel turns out to be a real thing, the last 100 years of physics are a lie.
Leftovers of an ancient civilization / Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth
That is less unlikely than the rest, actually. It does not violate my priors against recognizable life forms unrelated to Earth’s.
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
Explicitly excluding merely hyper-advanced human tech
I forfeit any and all potential “gotcha” cases.
Yeah, that makes sense for a bet.
Determination of resolution to be up to you.
I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]
definitely quite reasonable.
I Send you $X Immediately, You pay out $200*X if I win
I want a 5 year time horizon.
while sensible, it does make me think that even for $10 I’d be (very unlikely but potentially) out $2000 if I lose. I guess my reptile brain shouts nooo! That’s too much. Or, well, rather hisses than shouts.
I assume you mean the central example, some indisputably organic entities arriving from another star system on something indisputably like a “spacecraft”
Extraterrestrial in origin, biological or otherwise (their autonomous probes, for instance).
Hmm, I don’t even know how to identify something like that.
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Oh yeah, that would be fantastic! And it might happen, just probably not in the area of physics foundations. I looked over my posts and comments over the last 12 years or so, and there hasn’t been anything remotely close to what you are describing, as far as I can tell.
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Willing to bet on this at 200:1?
My Offer:
I Send you $X Immediately, You pay out $200*X if I win
I want a 5 year time horizon.
I am betting that one of the “very weird” hypotheses turns out true. Bet resolves in my favor if within 5 years its determined that >0 UAP are explained by:
Literal aliens
Magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon
Time travel
Leftovers of an ancient civilization / Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth
Some other explanation that’s of this level of “very weird”
Explicitly excluding merely hyper-advanced human tech
I forfeit any and all potential “gotcha” cases.
Determination of resolution to be up to you.
I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]
Please let me know what your maximum payout you swear to be good for would be, and Ill send you 1/200th that today, up to a maximum of 5K.
If these terms are acceptable, please provide a means for me to pay you. I would prefer a crypto address, but will make whatever work. Upon payment please post an acknowledgement of payment.
I offer the same terms to anyone else [with a nontrivial post history].
This made me think!
I assume you mean the central example, some indisputably organic entities arriving from another star system on something indisputably like a “spacecraft”
Hmm, I don’t even know how to identify something like that.
Yeah, I’d bet against that one, no problem. If time travel turns out to be a real thing, the last 100 years of physics are a lie.
That is less unlikely than the rest, actually. It does not violate my priors against recognizable life forms unrelated to Earth’s.
Yeah, that makes sense for a bet.
definitely quite reasonable.
while sensible, it does make me think that even for $10 I’d be (very unlikely but potentially) out $2000 if I lose. I guess my reptile brain shouts nooo! That’s too much. Or, well, rather hisses than shouts.
Extraterrestrial in origin, biological or otherwise (their autonomous probes, for instance).
Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying “Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild”
In general, what I’m trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community experiencing some significant ontological shock. If the community stops, melts, and catches fire, I win the bet.
Oh yeah, that would be fantastic! And it might happen, just probably not in the area of physics foundations. I looked over my posts and comments over the last 12 years or so, and there hasn’t been anything remotely close to what you are describing, as far as I can tell.
What is the largest amount that you’re willing to bet?
I have created a post here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up
+++
I have created a post for this bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up