That is an honorable offer (I appreciate it, really), but it has negative expected value for me due to counterparty risk, friction, variance, etcetera. (See bayesed’s comment.) I’d need substantially better odds for the expected profit to exceed the friction.
Thanks and that’s fair. I would have liked to bet mostly as a hedge to allow myself to not think about aliens in the next 10 years (I semi-regularly get roped into investigating some claims, but the UFO community’s epistemics is the worst I’ve seen and it is always an awful experience), but the bet wasn’t really positive EV for me either, so I don’t think I will bet at worse odds, but you can probably find someone on the r/UFOs subreddit if you want, some of them seem to be celebrating the new world order now.
That is an honorable offer (I appreciate it, really), but it has negative expected value for me due to counterparty risk, friction, variance, etcetera. (See bayesed’s comment.) I’d need substantially better odds for the expected profit to exceed the friction.
Thanks and that’s fair. I would have liked to bet mostly as a hedge to allow myself to not think about aliens in the next 10 years (I semi-regularly get roped into investigating some claims, but the UFO community’s epistemics is the worst I’ve seen and it is always an awful experience), but the bet wasn’t really positive EV for me either, so I don’t think I will bet at worse odds, but you can probably find someone on the r/UFOs subreddit if you want, some of them seem to be celebrating the new world order now.