Perhaps this is genuine whistleblowing, but not on what they make it sound like? Suppose there’s something being covered up that Grusch et al. want to expose, but describing what it is plainly is inconvenient for one reason or another. So they coordinate around the wacky UFO story, with the goal being to point people in the rough direction of what they want looked at.
My priors are still for all of this being bullshit; some psyop or a psychotic break that snowballed or none of these articles corresponding to reality at all. But if there really is a large number of intelligence officials earnestly coming forward with this, “UFOs are aliens” still seems overwhelmingly unlikely to be what it’s about.
My guess was that some people involved in foreign craft recovery and reverse engineering programs (we know that these exist) want their programs to be exposed to more oversight, because they’re currently too closed off to be cost-effective or useful, or because they’re being badly mismanaged in some other way.
So they’re telling congress, and maybe Grusch, that it’s an alien craft recovery and reverse engineering program, because in the current climate that’s going to get it done quicker. I think there might be some new legal protection for UAP reports too. It’s possible that there is no other legal avenue to get this looked at. I was considering posting about this, but didn’t see the point. What do you want to do, prevent them from getting more oversight?
I was considering posting about this, but didn’t see the point.
Preventing people who don’t know enough to generate this alternate hypothesis from invalidly updating towards “aliens are real”, maybe? Might have a significant formative effect on e. g. people who’d only started buying into the whole “rationality” thing, and don’t have priors against aliens strong enough to keep dismissing the hypothesis even in light of what may look like overwhelming evidence.
I don’t see rationality as being generally undermined by the UFO subject. My impression has always been that the most prominent figures in the dialog are skeptics. The subject ends up being a fun study of how ordinary people can be wrong and how authors sometimes lie. Among woo theories, I think it’s the one that is most compatible with science.
I don’t think a person can be a rationalist if they’ve never had an encounter with delusion and seen that it’s escapable. Until having that experience, it’s hard to really have faith in dialog or investigation.
But if there really is a large number of intelligence officials earnestly coming forward with this
Yea, according to Michael Shellenberger’s reporting on this, multiple “high-ranking intelligence officials, former intelligence officials, or individuals who we could verify were involved in U.S. government UAP efforts for three or more decades each” have come forward to vouch for Grusch’s core claims.
Perhaps this is genuine whistleblowing, but not on what they make it sound like? Suppose there’s something being covered up that Grusch et al. want to expose, but describing what it is plainly is inconvenient for one reason or another. So they coordinate around the wacky UFO story, with the goal being to point people in the rough direction of what they want looked at.
Perhaps this is genuine whistleblowing, but not on what they make it sound like? Suppose there’s something being covered up that Grusch et al. want to expose, but describing what it is plainly is inconvenient for one reason or another. So they coordinate around the wacky UFO story, with the goal being to point people in the rough direction of what they want looked at.
My priors are still for all of this being bullshit; some psyop or a psychotic break that snowballed or none of these articles corresponding to reality at all. But if there really is a large number of intelligence officials earnestly coming forward with this, “UFOs are aliens” still seems overwhelmingly unlikely to be what it’s about.
My guess was that some people involved in foreign craft recovery and reverse engineering programs (we know that these exist) want their programs to be exposed to more oversight, because they’re currently too closed off to be cost-effective or useful, or because they’re being badly mismanaged in some other way.
So they’re telling congress, and maybe Grusch, that it’s an alien craft recovery and reverse engineering program, because in the current climate that’s going to get it done quicker. I think there might be some new legal protection for UAP reports too. It’s possible that there is no other legal avenue to get this looked at.
I was considering posting about this, but didn’t see the point. What do you want to do, prevent them from getting more oversight?
Preventing people who don’t know enough to generate this alternate hypothesis from invalidly updating towards “aliens are real”, maybe? Might have a significant formative effect on e. g. people who’d only started buying into the whole “rationality” thing, and don’t have priors against aliens strong enough to keep dismissing the hypothesis even in light of what may look like overwhelming evidence.
I don’t see rationality as being generally undermined by the UFO subject. My impression has always been that the most prominent figures in the dialog are skeptics. The subject ends up being a fun study of how ordinary people can be wrong and how authors sometimes lie. Among woo theories, I think it’s the one that is most compatible with science.
I don’t think a person can be a rationalist if they’ve never had an encounter with delusion and seen that it’s escapable. Until having that experience, it’s hard to really have faith in dialog or investigation.
Yea, according to Michael Shellenberger’s reporting on this, multiple “high-ranking intelligence officials, former intelligence officials, or individuals who we could verify were involved in U.S. government UAP efforts for three or more decades each” have come forward to vouch for Grusch’s core claims.
Interesting theory. Definitely a possibility.