Well there is a interplay between different sense of “cause”.
If you think how one controls a nuclear arsenal, buttons is totally how humans “cause” things. However if you conditioned between “button connected to radio” vs “button not connected to radio” and “radio message received by officer” vs “radio message not received by officer”, and “officer has key” vs “officer doesn’t have key” and “silo doors open” vs “silo doors don’t open”, the bit about pushing the button is likey to be insignifcant in compared to the other bits. So there probably ins’t a good statistical correlation with the bare button with nuclear winter.
Another limit case would be stock market crashes. They are not designed to crash and mostly people don’t want them to crash. Typically the is no single reason why they happen. But it would still be strange to say that they happen for no reason or that nothing caused the crash.
When you consider the button you are likely to keep the “button as part of this machinery” as the constant reference class and wary the environment. Similarly when yuo ared considering the butterfly you want to consider “this butterfly” and not “any butterfly” (like “any button” is not relevant). Part of keeping it that butterfly is to keep the environment of it somewhat constant “butterfly by this lake”, “butterfly now”. These provide these functionality structures.
In a kind of reverse thing you could ask given some assembly of machinery, can it be interpreted as a factory with a start button? For many man-built factories you indeed find these “linchpin” influencers. One could also be interested in “death star exhaust ports”, points that have great influence despite not designed to do so. And they would be “linchpin influencers” even before the exploit is found.
Well there is a interplay between different sense of “cause”.
If you think how one controls a nuclear arsenal, buttons is totally how humans “cause” things. However if you conditioned between “button connected to radio” vs “button not connected to radio” and “radio message received by officer” vs “radio message not received by officer”, and “officer has key” vs “officer doesn’t have key” and “silo doors open” vs “silo doors don’t open”, the bit about pushing the button is likey to be insignifcant in compared to the other bits. So there probably ins’t a good statistical correlation with the bare button with nuclear winter.
Another limit case would be stock market crashes. They are not designed to crash and mostly people don’t want them to crash. Typically the is no single reason why they happen. But it would still be strange to say that they happen for no reason or that nothing caused the crash.
When you consider the button you are likely to keep the “button as part of this machinery” as the constant reference class and wary the environment. Similarly when yuo ared considering the butterfly you want to consider “this butterfly” and not “any butterfly” (like “any button” is not relevant). Part of keeping it that butterfly is to keep the environment of it somewhat constant “butterfly by this lake”, “butterfly now”. These provide these functionality structures.
In a kind of reverse thing you could ask given some assembly of machinery, can it be interpreted as a factory with a start button? For many man-built factories you indeed find these “linchpin” influencers. One could also be interested in “death star exhaust ports”, points that have great influence despite not designed to do so. And they would be “linchpin influencers” even before the exploit is found.