Is that 50-55% estimate conditional on no civilizational collapse or extinction event? Either way, it seems very optimistic. According to current actuarial estimates, a 30 year-old has about a 50% chance of living another 50 years. For life expectancy to dramatically increase, a lot of things have to fall into place over the next half-century. If you think anti-aging tech will be available in 30 years, consider how medicine has advanced in the past 30. Unless there are significant breakthroughs, we’re sunk. I’m signed up for cryo and I donate to SENS, but my estimates are much more pessimistic than yours.
I believe I used a fairly small number for civilizational collapse and extinction, on the order of ten to fifteen percent. I just don’t find such doomsday scenarios that likely or plausible.
It may be that my background and upbringing have inured me to it—I’ve seen the end of the world not happen far too many times in my lifetime:
Communists failed to conquer everyone
There was no nuclear war/nuclear winter with russia
The UN new world order didn’t enslave everyone
The end times due to the second coming of christ haven’t happened at least a dozen times
y2k didn’t cause problems
2012 was just retarded
There has been no superflu
The stock market has become more stable over time, not less
Peak oil happened and nobody even noticed
There was no hard AI takeoff
There’s probably more if I stop to think about it.
At the moment, I find biotech to be the most likely existential threat, with general civilization collapse and strong AI the next two major candidates.
Is that 50-55% estimate conditional on no civilizational collapse or extinction event? Either way, it seems very optimistic. According to current actuarial estimates, a 30 year-old has about a 50% chance of living another 50 years. For life expectancy to dramatically increase, a lot of things have to fall into place over the next half-century. If you think anti-aging tech will be available in 30 years, consider how medicine has advanced in the past 30. Unless there are significant breakthroughs, we’re sunk. I’m signed up for cryo and I donate to SENS, but my estimates are much more pessimistic than yours.
I believe I used a fairly small number for civilizational collapse and extinction, on the order of ten to fifteen percent. I just don’t find such doomsday scenarios that likely or plausible.
It may be that my background and upbringing have inured me to it—I’ve seen the end of the world not happen far too many times in my lifetime:
Communists failed to conquer everyone
There was no nuclear war/nuclear winter with russia
The UN new world order didn’t enslave everyone
The end times due to the second coming of christ haven’t happened at least a dozen times
y2k didn’t cause problems
2012 was just retarded
There has been no superflu
The stock market has become more stable over time, not less
Peak oil happened and nobody even noticed
There was no hard AI takeoff
There’s probably more if I stop to think about it.
At the moment, I find biotech to be the most likely existential threat, with general civilization collapse and strong AI the next two major candidates.