Also, on the occasions when global warming believers make independently verifiable predictions with definite dates they inevitably fail to occur as shown by the fact that Britain still has snow and Manhattan isn’t under water.
Yes, some global warming believers have made predictions that have been falsified, but “inevitably fail to occur” is wrong. Here’s a counterexample.
Julia Hargreaves does a lot of work evaluating predictive climate models, and her conclusion is that there are reliable models for predicting broad global climate response to anthropogenic forcing, but we don’t currently have trustworthy predictions at the sub-continental scale. So I think it is appropriate to be skeptical about confident and precise predictions about what will happen in particular parts of the world.
Yes, some global warming believers have made predictions that have been falsified, but “inevitably fail to occur” is wrong. Here’s a counterexample.
The only example of a successful prediction in your article is a rise in “mean surface temperature” which as I mentioned in the grand-parent is not hard to fudge, heck I also linked to data that gives opposite conclusions in the grand-parent. The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.
Julia Hargreaves does a lot of work evaluating predictive climate models, and her conclusion is that there are reliable models for predicting broad global climate response to anthropogenic forcing, but we don’t currently have trustworthy predictions at the sub-continental scale. So I think it is appropriate to be skeptical about confident and precise predictions about what will happen in particular parts of the world.
And yet for some reason all said predictions fail in the same direction.
The only example of a successful prediction in your article is a rise in “mean surface temperature” which as I mentioned in the grand-parent is not hard to fudge
Your evidence that the weights used to calculate mean surface temperature are fudged in favor of global warming is a link to the “VERY ARTIFICIAL correction” in the CRU code. But that correction was not applied to global mean surface temperature data. It was applied to historical tree-ring data in order to account for the discrepancy between recent temperatures calculated using tree-ring data and recent temperatures calculated using other means known to be more reliable.
Uncorrected, the tree ring data suggests a decline in temperatures beginning around 1940 and continuing to the present. We have plenty of evidence that this is not in fact correct from actual thermometer-based records, so the correction was applied as a proxy for the unknown cause of this recent divergence. Now this does perhaps “hide” the fact that tree-ring records are not trustworthy (although CRU published papers explicitly mentioning this supposedly hidden fact), but it does not show that actual thermometer-based temperature records are being artificially tampered with to produce global warming.
It seems to me that ESR misrepresents this fact (although perhaps he was unaware of it) when he characterizes the “correction” as being applied to “Northern Hemisphere temperatures and reconstructions”, with no mention of tree rings.
And I am very skeptical that temperature records over a very recent decade (the basis for the article I linked) have had significant external weighting applied to them to “fudge the results”. The problem of changing station locations may necessitate differential weighting over longer time frames, but just from 2002 to 2011? I don’t believe you. If you have any evidence suggesting that this is what is going on, I’m interested to see it.
The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.
It doesn’t read that way to me.
And yet for some reason all said predictions fail in the same direction.
Probably due to politically motivated reasoning. I’m not denying that climate change activists often make exaggerated and unwise predictions about the impact of climate change, especially in the popular media. I am denying your claim that the predictive record of climate science is entirely negative. There are climate models that have done pretty well, at least when it comes to global trends.
Here is the article I linked to above. Note that it implies a different conclusion about recent temperature trends. Do you have any evidence for preferring your letter to the editor over the article Eric discusses besides it confirming your pre-existing belief?
The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.
It doesn’t read that way to me.
Have you even read the article you linked to? Here are the first four sentences:
Early climate forecasts are often claimed to have overestimated recent warming. However, their evaluation is challenging for two reasons. First, only a small number of independent
forecasts have been made. And second, an independent test of a forecast of the decadal response to external climate forcing requires observations taken over at least one and a half decades from the last observations used to make the forecast, because internally generated climate fluctuations can persist for several years.
Here is the article I linked to above. Note that it implies a different conclusion about recent temperature trends. Do you have any evidence for preferring your letter to the editor over the article Eric discusses besides it confirming your pre-existing belief?
Not sure what you mean by “different conclusion”. Both papers are based on the exact same data (the HadCRUT4 data set). There is no conflict between the articles that I can see. Curry’s paper is about discrepancies between the data and the CMIP5 model simulations. The paper I linked is about the success of the HadCM2 model. It also says some stuff about the CMIP5 model, but as far as I can tell it doesn’t say anything that is inconsistent with what Curry says.
So I don’t “prefer” one article to the other. It seems to me that both articles are making perfectly valid points. Are you sure you’re not falling for “arguments are soldiers” thinking? Just because I posted evidence that climate predictions don’t “inevitably” fail doesn’t mean I think that all climate model predictions are accurate at a 2% confidence level.
Have you even read the article you linked to? Here are the first four sentences:
Again, not sure what you’re talking about. Why do those four sentences read like an attempt to explain away false predictions? The whole point that the authors are making is now that we do have independent observations taken over one and a half decades, we can evaluate the success or failure of models constructed in the mid-90s.
Here is the article I linked to above. Note that it implies a different conclusion about recent temperature trends. Do you have any evidence for preferring your letter to the editor over the article Eric discusses besides it confirming your pre-existing belief?
I honestly don’t know what you’re talking about. Both papers are based on the exact same data (the HadCRUT4 data set). There is no conflict between the articles that I can see. Curry’s paper is about discrepancies between the data and the CMIP5 model simulations. The paper I linked is about the success of the HadCM2 model. It also says some stuff about the CMIP5 model, but as far as I can tell it doesn’t say anything that is inconsistent with what Curry says. Is there some inconsistency you had in mind?
So I don’t “prefer” one article to the other. It seems to me that both articles are making perfectly valid points. Are you sure you’re not falling for “arguments are soldiers” thinking? Just because I posted evidence that climate predictions don’t “inevitably” fail doesn’t mean I think that all climate model predictions are accurate at a 2% confidence level.
Have you even read the article you linked to? Here are the first four sentences:
Again, not sure what you’re talking about. Why do those four sentences read like an attempt to explain away false predictions? The whole point that the authors are making is now that we do have independent observations taken over one and a half decades, we can evaluate the success or failure of models constructed in the mid-90s.
Yes, some global warming believers have made predictions that have been falsified, but “inevitably fail to occur” is wrong. Here’s a counterexample.
Julia Hargreaves does a lot of work evaluating predictive climate models, and her conclusion is that there are reliable models for predicting broad global climate response to anthropogenic forcing, but we don’t currently have trustworthy predictions at the sub-continental scale. So I think it is appropriate to be skeptical about confident and precise predictions about what will happen in particular parts of the world.
The only example of a successful prediction in your article is a rise in “mean surface temperature” which as I mentioned in the grand-parent is not hard to fudge, heck I also linked to data that gives opposite conclusions in the grand-parent. The rest of said article reads like an attempt to (preemptively?) explain away failed predictions.
And yet for some reason all said predictions fail in the same direction.
Your evidence that the weights used to calculate mean surface temperature are fudged in favor of global warming is a link to the “VERY ARTIFICIAL correction” in the CRU code. But that correction was not applied to global mean surface temperature data. It was applied to historical tree-ring data in order to account for the discrepancy between recent temperatures calculated using tree-ring data and recent temperatures calculated using other means known to be more reliable.
Uncorrected, the tree ring data suggests a decline in temperatures beginning around 1940 and continuing to the present. We have plenty of evidence that this is not in fact correct from actual thermometer-based records, so the correction was applied as a proxy for the unknown cause of this recent divergence. Now this does perhaps “hide” the fact that tree-ring records are not trustworthy (although CRU published papers explicitly mentioning this supposedly hidden fact), but it does not show that actual thermometer-based temperature records are being artificially tampered with to produce global warming.
It seems to me that ESR misrepresents this fact (although perhaps he was unaware of it) when he characterizes the “correction” as being applied to “Northern Hemisphere temperatures and reconstructions”, with no mention of tree rings.
And I am very skeptical that temperature records over a very recent decade (the basis for the article I linked) have had significant external weighting applied to them to “fudge the results”. The problem of changing station locations may necessitate differential weighting over longer time frames, but just from 2002 to 2011? I don’t believe you. If you have any evidence suggesting that this is what is going on, I’m interested to see it.
It doesn’t read that way to me.
Probably due to politically motivated reasoning. I’m not denying that climate change activists often make exaggerated and unwise predictions about the impact of climate change, especially in the popular media. I am denying your claim that the predictive record of climate science is entirely negative. There are climate models that have done pretty well, at least when it comes to global trends.
Here is the article I linked to above. Note that it implies a different conclusion about recent temperature trends. Do you have any evidence for preferring your letter to the editor over the article Eric discusses besides it confirming your pre-existing belief?
Have you even read the article you linked to? Here are the first four sentences:
Not sure what you mean by “different conclusion”. Both papers are based on the exact same data (the HadCRUT4 data set). There is no conflict between the articles that I can see. Curry’s paper is about discrepancies between the data and the CMIP5 model simulations. The paper I linked is about the success of the HadCM2 model. It also says some stuff about the CMIP5 model, but as far as I can tell it doesn’t say anything that is inconsistent with what Curry says.
So I don’t “prefer” one article to the other. It seems to me that both articles are making perfectly valid points. Are you sure you’re not falling for “arguments are soldiers” thinking? Just because I posted evidence that climate predictions don’t “inevitably” fail doesn’t mean I think that all climate model predictions are accurate at a 2% confidence level.
Again, not sure what you’re talking about. Why do those four sentences read like an attempt to explain away false predictions? The whole point that the authors are making is now that we do have independent observations taken over one and a half decades, we can evaluate the success or failure of models constructed in the mid-90s.
ETA: Double post. Retracting.
I honestly don’t know what you’re talking about. Both papers are based on the exact same data (the HadCRUT4 data set). There is no conflict between the articles that I can see. Curry’s paper is about discrepancies between the data and the CMIP5 model simulations. The paper I linked is about the success of the HadCM2 model. It also says some stuff about the CMIP5 model, but as far as I can tell it doesn’t say anything that is inconsistent with what Curry says. Is there some inconsistency you had in mind?
So I don’t “prefer” one article to the other. It seems to me that both articles are making perfectly valid points. Are you sure you’re not falling for “arguments are soldiers” thinking? Just because I posted evidence that climate predictions don’t “inevitably” fail doesn’t mean I think that all climate model predictions are accurate at a 2% confidence level.
Again, not sure what you’re talking about. Why do those four sentences read like an attempt to explain away false predictions? The whole point that the authors are making is now that we do have independent observations taken over one and a half decades, we can evaluate the success or failure of models constructed in the mid-90s.