RE the FOOM debate: On this, I think the Hansonian viewpoint that takeoff would be gradual was way more correct than the discontinuous narrative of Eliezer, where AI progress in the real world follows more of a Hansonian path.
Eliezer didn’t get this totally wrong, and there are some results in AI showing that there can be phase transitions/​discontinuities. But overall, a good prior for AI progress is that it will look like the Hansonian continuous progress rather than the FOOM of Eliezer.
RE the FOOM debate: On this, I think the Hansonian viewpoint that takeoff would be gradual was way more correct than the discontinuous narrative of Eliezer, where AI progress in the real world follows more of a Hansonian path.
Eliezer didn’t get this totally wrong, and there are some results in AI showing that there can be phase transitions/​discontinuities. But overall, a good prior for AI progress is that it will look like the Hansonian continuous progress rather than the FOOM of Eliezer.