Competently zero-shotting games like Pokémon without having been trained to do that, purely as the result of pretraining-scaling plus transfer learning from RL on math/programming.
Here is a related market inspired by the AI timelines dialog, currently at 30%:
Note that in this market the AI is not restricted to only “pretraining-scaling plus transfer learning from RL on math/programming”, it is allowed to be trained on a wide range of video games, but it has to do transfer learning to a new genre. Also, it is allowed to transfer successfully to any new genre, not just Pokémon.
I infer you are at ~20% for your more restrictive prediction:
80% bear case is correct, in which case P=5%
20% bear case is wrong, in which case P=80% (?)
So perhaps you’d also be at ~30% for this market?
I’m not especially convinced by your bear case, but I think I’m also at ~30% on the market. I’m tempted to bet lower because of the logistics of training the AI, finding a genre that it wasn’t trained on (might require a new genre to be created), and then having the demonstration occur, all in the next nine months. But I’m not sure I have an edge over the other bettors on this one.
Here is a related market inspired by the AI timelines dialog, currently at 30%:
Note that in this market the AI is not restricted to only “pretraining-scaling plus transfer learning from RL on math/programming”, it is allowed to be trained on a wide range of video games, but it has to do transfer learning to a new genre. Also, it is allowed to transfer successfully to any new genre, not just Pokémon.
I infer you are at ~20% for your more restrictive prediction:
80% bear case is correct, in which case P=5%
20% bear case is wrong, in which case P=80% (?)
So perhaps you’d also be at ~30% for this market?
I’m not especially convinced by your bear case, but I think I’m also at ~30% on the market. I’m tempted to bet lower because of the logistics of training the AI, finding a genre that it wasn’t trained on (might require a new genre to be created), and then having the demonstration occur, all in the next nine months. But I’m not sure I have an edge over the other bettors on this one.