“Estimate a 10% current AI risk”… wait, where did that come from?
You say “Let A be the probability that an AI will be created”, but actually your A is the probability that an AI will be created which then goes on to wipe out humanity unless precautions are taken, but which will also fail to wipe out humanity if the proper precautions are taken.
Your estimate for that is a whopping 10%? Without any sort of substantiating argument?? …
Let’s say I claim 0.000001% is a much more reasonable figure for this: what would be your rationale supporting that your estimate is more plausible than mine?
Using my estimate, it suddenly becomes much more worthwhile in terms of lives saved per dollar to just build wells in Africa.
(addendum, in fact, I would argue that utility is not to me measured in lives-saved-per-dollar, or else you would need to invest in increasing fertility in Africa so you can then go on to save more lives by building wells. Instead your utility should be a stable and happy Africa (Africa because that’s the most unhappy continent right now, so your payoff will tend to be greatest if you invest in Africa) -- for which end the rational thing to do will be invest in birth control rather than wells. But that’s a different story)
“Estimate a 10% current AI risk”… wait, where did that come from? You say “Let A be the probability that an AI will be created”, but actually your A is the probability that an AI will be created which then goes on to wipe out humanity unless precautions are taken, but which will also fail to wipe out humanity if the proper precautions are taken.
Your estimate for that is a whopping 10%? Without any sort of substantiating argument??
… Let’s say I claim 0.000001% is a much more reasonable figure for this: what would be your rationale supporting that your estimate is more plausible than mine? Using my estimate, it suddenly becomes much more worthwhile in terms of lives saved per dollar to just build wells in Africa.
(addendum, in fact, I would argue that utility is not to me measured in lives-saved-per-dollar, or else you would need to invest in increasing fertility in Africa so you can then go on to save more lives by building wells. Instead your utility should be a stable and happy Africa (Africa because that’s the most unhappy continent right now, so your payoff will tend to be greatest if you invest in Africa) -- for which end the rational thing to do will be invest in birth control rather than wells. But that’s a different story)