I think the general idea is that the US is currently a functioning democracy, while China is not. I think if this continued to be true, it would be a strong reason to prefer AGI in the hands of the US vs Chinese governments. I think this is true despite agreeing that the US is more violent and reckless than China (in some ways—the persecution of the Uigher people by the Chinese government hits a different sort of violence than any recent US government acts).
If the government is truly accountable to the people, public opinion will play a large role in deciding how AGI is used. Benefits would accrue first to the US, but new technologies developed by AGI can be shared without cost. Once we have largely autonomous and self-replicating factories, the whole world could be made vastly richer at almost zero cost. This will be a pragmatic as well as an idealistic move; making more of the world your friend at low cost is good politics as well as good ethics.
However, it seems pretty questionable whether the US will remain a true democracy. The upcoming election should give us more insight into the resilience and stability of the institution.
Even setting aside any criticism of what a “true democracy” is[1] and whether the US’s is better than what China has for Americans, your claim is that it’s better for everyone. I don’t think there’s good reason to believe this; I’d expect that foreign policy is a more relevant thing to compare, and China’s is broadly more non-interventionist than America’s: if you were far away from the borders of both, you’re more likely to experience American bombs[2] than Chinese ones.
In service of noble causes like spreading democracy and human rights, protecting the rules-based international order, and stopping genocide, of course, but that’s cold comfort when your family have been blown to bits.
There is certainly merit to what you say. I don’t want to go into it farther; LW maintains a good community standard of cordial exchanges in part by believing that “politics is the mind-killer”.
I wasn’t arguing that US foreign policy is better for the world now. I was just offering one reason it might be better in a future scenario in which one or the other has powerful AGI. It could easily be wrong; I think this question deserves a lot more analysis.
If you have reasons to feel optimistic about the CCP being either the sole AGI-controller or one several in a multipolar scenario, I’d really love to hear them. I don’t know much about the mindset of the CCP and I’d really rather not push for a race to AGI if it’s not really necessary.
Ok, that. China seems less interventionist, and to use more soft power. The US is more willing to go to war. But is that because the US is more powerful than China, or because Chinese culture is intrinsically more peaceful? If China made the killer robots first, would they say “MUA-HA-HA actually we always wanted to shoot people for no good reason like in yankee movies! Go and kill!”
Since politics is a default-no on lesswrong, I’ll try to muddle the waters by making a distracting unserious figurative narration.
Americans maybe have more of a culture of “if I die in a shooting conflict, I die honorably, guns for everyone”. Instead China is more about harmony&homogenity, “The CCP is proud to announce that in 2025 the Harmonious Agreement Quinquennal Plan in concluded successfully; all disagreements are no more, and everyone is officially friends”. When the Chinese send Uighurs to the adult equivalent of school, Americans freak out: “What? Mandated school? Without the option of shooting back?”
My doubt is mostly contingent on not having first-hand experience of China, while I have of the US. I really don’t trust narratives from outside. In particular I don’t trust narratives from Americans right now! My own impression of the US changed substantially by going there in person, and I even am from an allied country with broad US cultural influence.
I think the general idea is that the US is currently a functioning democracy, while China is not. I think if this continued to be true, it would be a strong reason to prefer AGI in the hands of the US vs Chinese governments. I think this is true despite agreeing that the US is more violent and reckless than China (in some ways—the persecution of the Uigher people by the Chinese government hits a different sort of violence than any recent US government acts).
If the government is truly accountable to the people, public opinion will play a large role in deciding how AGI is used. Benefits would accrue first to the US, but new technologies developed by AGI can be shared without cost. Once we have largely autonomous and self-replicating factories, the whole world could be made vastly richer at almost zero cost. This will be a pragmatic as well as an idealistic move; making more of the world your friend at low cost is good politics as well as good ethics.
However, it seems pretty questionable whether the US will remain a true democracy. The upcoming election should give us more insight into the resilience and stability of the institution.
Even setting aside any criticism of what a “true democracy” is[1] and whether the US’s is better than what China has for Americans, your claim is that it’s better for everyone. I don’t think there’s good reason to believe this; I’d expect that foreign policy is a more relevant thing to compare, and China’s is broadly more non-interventionist than America’s: if you were far away from the borders of both, you’re more likely to experience American bombs[2] than Chinese ones.
I suspect what you have in mind conveniently includes decidedly anti-democratic protections for minorities.
In service of noble causes like spreading democracy and human rights, protecting the rules-based international order, and stopping genocide, of course, but that’s cold comfort when your family have been blown to bits.
There is certainly merit to what you say. I don’t want to go into it farther; LW maintains a good community standard of cordial exchanges in part by believing that “politics is the mind-killer”.
I wasn’t arguing that US foreign policy is better for the world now. I was just offering one reason it might be better in a future scenario in which one or the other has powerful AGI. It could easily be wrong; I think this question deserves a lot more analysis.
If you have reasons to feel optimistic about the CCP being either the sole AGI-controller or one several in a multipolar scenario, I’d really love to hear them. I don’t know much about the mindset of the CCP and I’d really rather not push for a race to AGI if it’s not really necessary.
Ok, that. China seems less interventionist, and to use more soft power. The US is more willing to go to war. But is that because the US is more powerful than China, or because Chinese culture is intrinsically more peaceful? If China made the killer robots first, would they say “MUA-HA-HA actually we always wanted to shoot people for no good reason like in yankee movies! Go and kill!”
Since politics is a default-no on lesswrong, I’ll try to muddle the waters by making a distracting unserious figurative narration.
Americans maybe have more of a culture of “if I die in a shooting conflict, I die honorably, guns for everyone”. Instead China is more about harmony&homogenity, “The CCP is proud to announce that in 2025 the Harmonious Agreement Quinquennal Plan in concluded successfully; all disagreements are no more, and everyone is officially friends”. When the Chinese send Uighurs to the adult equivalent of school, Americans freak out: “What? Mandated school? Without the option of shooting back?”
My doubt is mostly contingent on not having first-hand experience of China, while I have of the US. I really don’t trust narratives from outside. In particular I don’t trust narratives from Americans right now! My own impression of the US changed substantially by going there in person, and I even am from an allied country with broad US cultural influence.