I’m speaking from memory of reporting here, but my understanding is that there was a specific turning point in 2019/2020 when one of these orgs focus tested a bunch of messages and found that trans youth issues worked well, particularly as a wedge. (That is, the opposition were split on it.) US Americans, when polled, have a bunch of weirdly self-contradictory answers to questions on trans issues but are generally more supportive than not, depending on how they’re asked. My guess is they mostly don’t think about it too much, since there are plausibly a million or two trans people in the US, many of whom pass or are closeted.
In the previous cycle, “bathroom bills” had failed and generated backlash. In the current cycle focused on trans youth, there’s more uncertainty among people who think of themselves as liberals, and for a variety of reasons large news media organizations like the NYT have been happy to play along with conservative agenda-setting. There’s some decentralized, populist opposition, but it’s largely activated by forces far out of proportion to the number of trans athletes or minors getting gender-affirming surgery.
No idea what Musk’s deal is. Unrelatedly, I’m also very skeptical that Libs of TikTok is primarily motivated by sincere concerns.
Edit: here’s a handful of sources just from looking around again.
I’m speaking from memory of reporting here, but my understanding is that there was a specific turning point in 2019/2020 when one of these orgs focus tested a bunch of messages and found that trans youth issues worked well, particularly as a wedge. (That is, the opposition were split on it.) US Americans, when polled, have a bunch of weirdly self-contradictory answers to questions on trans issues but are generally more supportive than not, depending on how they’re asked. My guess is they mostly don’t think about it too much, since there are plausibly a million or two trans people in the US, many of whom pass or are closeted.
In the previous cycle, “bathroom bills” had failed and generated backlash. In the current cycle focused on trans youth, there’s more uncertainty among people who think of themselves as liberals, and for a variety of reasons large news media organizations like the NYT have been happy to play along with conservative agenda-setting. There’s some decentralized, populist opposition, but it’s largely activated by forces far out of proportion to the number of trans athletes or minors getting gender-affirming surgery.
No idea what Musk’s deal is. Unrelatedly, I’m also very skeptical that Libs of TikTok is primarily motivated by sincere concerns.
Edit: here’s a handful of sources just from looking around again.
NYT (2023): How A Campaign Against Transgender Rights Mobilized Conservatives (“it was also the result of careful planning by national conservative organizations to harness the emotion around gender politics”)
Axios (2023): The forces behind anti-trans bills across the U.S.
NBC News (2017), on ADF and bathroom bills: This Law Firm Is Linked to Anti-Transgender Bills Across the Country
The Guardian (2020), on other ADF activities and the new focus on student athletes: The multimillion-dollar Christian group attacking LGBTQ+ rights
Fairness and Accuracy In Reporting (2023): NYT’s Anti-Trans Bias, by the Numbers
I don’t endorse everything that’s written in these, but this is more or less the thing I’m talking about.