Putting 0 is misleading. It implies that you’re confident there is no chance at all. If you’re really not leaning one way or another, your best bet is to just put 50, or perhaps even skip the question if you really don’t want to give a probability.
Choosing 50% is availability bias. Just because the question is presented as a choice between MWI and everything else doesn’t mean there are only two choices. There are zillions of choices; MWI is just the one mentioned on the screen in front of me.
I assumed you’d already factored in those other choices and still weren’t leaning more for or against it relative to all the other possibilities combined. By “leaning one way or another”, I meant along a hypothetical axis of “strongly believe” or “strongly disbelieve” for the given proposition. You have a good point about availability bias though. You can self-correct for that to some extent by decreasing your assigned probabilities, and we’d have to take availability bias into account while interpreting the probabilities given by other people.
Putting 0 is misleading. It implies that you’re confident there is no chance at all. If you’re really not leaning one way or another, your best bet is to just put 50, or perhaps even skip the question if you really don’t want to give a probability.
Choosing 50% is availability bias. Just because the question is presented as a choice between MWI and everything else doesn’t mean there are only two choices. There are zillions of choices; MWI is just the one mentioned on the screen in front of me.
I assumed you’d already factored in those other choices and still weren’t leaning more for or against it relative to all the other possibilities combined. By “leaning one way or another”, I meant along a hypothetical axis of “strongly believe” or “strongly disbelieve” for the given proposition. You have a good point about availability bias though. You can self-correct for that to some extent by decreasing your assigned probabilities, and we’d have to take availability bias into account while interpreting the probabilities given by other people.