If you put down a random answer and know you did, then it seems like the correct estimate for your calibration would be 1 over the size of the sample space. Google tells me there are 206 bones in the adult human body, but a lot them are mirrored left to right, so maybe you’d be looking at something just south of 1%?
Probably higher, though, if you filtered out the many small bones in e.g. the fingers and toes, or the vertebrae.
Even then your subjective probability wouldn’t have been exactly 0. You could have put 0.00000000001 or something like that. The instructions didn’t forbid you from using long decimals. Even so, I think it would have been fine to put 0 if your subjective probability really was 0 or you felt like rounding down to it.
If you put down a random answer and know you did, then it seems like the correct estimate for your calibration would be 1 over the size of the sample space. Google tells me there are 206 bones in the adult human body, but a lot them are mirrored left to right, so maybe you’d be looking at something just south of 1%?
Probably higher, though, if you filtered out the many small bones in e.g. the fingers and toes, or the vertebrae.
You’re assuming the answer I wrote down was an accurate name of a bone.
Even then your subjective probability wouldn’t have been exactly 0. You could have put 0.00000000001 or something like that. The instructions didn’t forbid you from using long decimals. Even so, I think it would have been fine to put 0 if your subjective probability really was 0 or you felt like rounding down to it.