People who work for http://nuclearrisk.org/ have a very high estimate of the probability that a nuclear war will destroy the world (by their estimates, if you are American and under 40, then nuclear war is the single most likely way in which you might die next year).
Nuclear weapons have been available on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades, yet no terrorist or criminal group has ever used a nuclear fission initiation device. Nuclearrisk.org claims “terrorists may soon get their own button on the vest”, citing Al-Qaeda’s open desire to acquire nuclear weapons.
I am unable, if I assume fully honest and rational assessments, to rectify these points of fact with one another. They disagree with each other. Given the fact that, furthermore, many of these assessments of risk seem to carry the implicit assumption that if a single nuke is used, the whole world will start glowing in the dark ( see: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2009/july22/hellman-nuclear-analysis-071709.html for an example of this (Martin Hellman himself) ) -- well, it gets further absurd.
In other words; folks need to be careful, when crafting expert opinions, to avoid Déformation professionnelle.
Nuclear weapons have been available on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades, yet no terrorist or criminal group has ever used a nuclear fission initiation device
Cite please. From Pinker’s new book:
It’s really only nuclear weapons that deserve the WMD acronym. Mueller and Parachini have fact-checked the various reports that terrorists got “just this close” to obtaining a nuclear bomb and found that all were apocryphal. Reports of “interest” in procuring weapons on a black market grew into accounts of actual negotiations, generic sketches morphed into detailed blueprints, and flimsy clues (like the aluminum tubes purchased in 2001 by Iraq) were overinterpreted as signs of a development program.
Each of the pathways to nuclear terrorism, when examined carefully, turns out to have gantlets of improbabilities. There may have been a window of vulnerability in the safekeeping of nuclear weapons in Russia, but today most experts agree it has been closed, and that no loose nukes are being peddled in a nuclear bazaar. Stephen Younger, the former director of nuclear weapons research at Los Alamos National Laboratory, has said, “Regardless of what is reported in the news, all nuclear nations take the security of their weapons very seriously.”274 Russia has an intense interest in keeping its weapons out of the hands of Chechen and other ethnic separatist groups, and Pakistan is just as worried about its archenemy Al Qaeda. And contrary to rumor, security experts consider the chance that Pakistan’s government and military command will fall under the control of Islamist extremists to be essentially nil.275 Nuclear weapons have complex interlocks designed to prevent unauthorized deployment, and most of them become “radioactive scrap metal” if they are not maintained.276 For these reasons, the forty-seven-nation Nuclear Security Summit convened by Barack Obama in 2010 to prevent nuclear terrorism concentrated on the security of fissile material, such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium, rather than on finished weapons.
The dangers of filched fissile material are real, and the measures recommended at the summit are patently wise, responsible, and overdue. Still, one shouldn’t get so carried away by the image of garage nukes as to think they are inevitable or even extremely probable. The safeguards that are in place or will be soon will make fissile materials hard to steal or smuggle, and if they went missing, it would trigger an international manhunt. Fashioning a workable nuclear weapon requires precision engineering and fabrication techniques well beyond the capabilities of amateurs. The Gilmore commission, which advises the president and Congress on WMD terrorism, called the challenge “Herculean,” and Allison has described the weapons as “large, cumbersome, unsafe, unreliable, unpredictable, and inefficient.”277 Moreover, the path to getting the materials, experts, and facilities in place is mined with hazards of detection, betrayal, stings, blunders, and bad luck. In his book On Nuclear Terrorism, Levi laid out all the things that would have to go right for a terrorist nuclear attack to succeed, noting, “Murphy’s Law of Nuclear Terrorism: What can go wrong might go wrong.”278 Mueller counts twenty obstacles on the path and notes that even if a terrorist group had a fifty-fifty chance of clearing every one, the aggregate odds of its success would be one in a million. Levi brackets the range from the other end by estimating that even if the path were strewn with only ten obstacles, and the probability that each would be cleared was 80 percent, the aggregate odds of success facing a nuclear terrorist group would be one in ten. Those are not our odds of becoming victims. A terrorist group weighing its options, even with these overly optimistic guesstimates, might well conclude from the long odds that it would better off devoting its resources to projects with a higher chance of success. None of this, to repeat, means that nuclear terrorism is impossible, only that it is not, as so many people insist, imminent, inevitable, or highly probable.
200 Soviet nukes lost in Ukraine—article from Sept 13, 2002. There have been reported losses of nuclear submarines at sea since then as well (though those are improbably recoverable). Note: even if that window is closed now, it was open then, and no terrorist groups used that channel to acquire nukes—nor is there, as your citation notes, even so much as an actually recorded attempt to do so—in the entirety of that window of opportunity.
When dozens of disparate extremist groups failed to even attempt to acquire a specific category of weapon, we can safely at that point generalize into a principle that governs how ‘terrorists’ interact with ‘nukes’ (in this case) such that they are exceedingly unlikely to want to do so.
In this case, I assert it is because all such groups are inherently political, and as such the knowable political fallout (pun intended) of using a nuclear bomb is sufficient that it in and of itself acts as a deterrant against their use: I am possessed of a strong belief that any terrorist organization that used a nuclear bomb would be eradicated by the governments of every nation on the planet. There is no single event more likely to unify the hatred of all mankind against the perpetrator than the rogue use of a nuclear bomb; we have stigmatized them to that great an extent.
200 Soviet nukes lost in Ukraine—article from Sept 13, 2002. There have been reported losses of nuclear submarines at sea since then as well (though those are improbably recoverable).
A Pravda article about an accounting glitch is not terribly convincing. Accounting problems do not even mean that the bombs were accessible at any point (assuming they existed), much less that they have been available ‘on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades’! Srsly.
(Nor do lost submarines count; the US and Russia have difficulties in recovering them, black-market groups are right out, even the drug cartels can barely build working shallow subs.)
A Pravda article about an accounting glitch is not terribly convincing. Accounting problems do not even mean that the bombs were accessible at any point (assuming they existed), much less that they have been available ‘on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades’! Srsly.
You’ve missed the point of what I was asserting with that article.
I was demonstrating that the Soviets did not keep proper track of their nuclear weapons, to the point where even they did not know how many they had. The rest follows from there with public-knowledge information not the least of which being the extremity of corruption that existed in the CCCP.
Nuclear weapons have been available on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades, yet no terrorist or criminal group has ever used a nuclear fission initiation device. Nuclearrisk.org claims “terrorists may soon get their own button on the vest”, citing Al-Qaeda’s open desire to acquire nuclear weapons.
I am unable, if I assume fully honest and rational assessments, to rectify these points of fact with one another. They disagree with each other. Given the fact that, furthermore, many of these assessments of risk seem to carry the implicit assumption that if a single nuke is used, the whole world will start glowing in the dark ( see: http://news.stanford.edu/news/2009/july22/hellman-nuclear-analysis-071709.html for an example of this (Martin Hellman himself) ) -- well, it gets further absurd.
In other words; folks need to be careful, when crafting expert opinions, to avoid Déformation professionnelle.
Cite please. From Pinker’s new book:
200 Soviet nukes lost in Ukraine—article from Sept 13, 2002. There have been reported losses of nuclear submarines at sea since then as well (though those are improbably recoverable). Note: even if that window is closed now, it was open then, and no terrorist groups used that channel to acquire nukes—nor is there, as your citation notes, even so much as an actually recorded attempt to do so—in the entirety of that window of opportunity.
When dozens of disparate extremist groups failed to even attempt to acquire a specific category of weapon, we can safely at that point generalize into a principle that governs how ‘terrorists’ interact with ‘nukes’ (in this case) such that they are exceedingly unlikely to want to do so.
In this case, I assert it is because all such groups are inherently political, and as such the knowable political fallout (pun intended) of using a nuclear bomb is sufficient that it in and of itself acts as a deterrant against their use: I am possessed of a strong belief that any terrorist organization that used a nuclear bomb would be eradicated by the governments of every nation on the planet. There is no single event more likely to unify the hatred of all mankind against the perpetrator than the rogue use of a nuclear bomb; we have stigmatized them to that great an extent.
A Pravda article about an accounting glitch is not terribly convincing. Accounting problems do not even mean that the bombs were accessible at any point (assuming they existed), much less that they have been available ‘on the “black market” (thanks to sloppy soviet handling practices) for decades’! Srsly.
(Nor do lost submarines count; the US and Russia have difficulties in recovering them, black-market groups are right out, even the drug cartels can barely build working shallow subs.)
You’ve missed the point of what I was asserting with that article.
I was demonstrating that the Soviets did not keep proper track of their nuclear weapons, to the point where even they did not know how many they had. The rest follows from there with public-knowledge information not the least of which being the extremity of corruption that existed in the CCCP.