I think you’re really really badly off base, and let me show you why:
That’s what they are capable of under human control. The actual drone hardware is under $1000.
None of your radar proposals are any use. The drones will fly inches from the ground and are a lot of plastic, and their speeds are low, and will keep terrain between them and the enemy. These are generally not going to be detectable on radar until it’s too late. Radar is not effective now.
The biggest objection to why you won’t see these drones immediately is you need powerful onboard GPUs to run a realtime AI control model to get human (or insect) level flight control, and to actually coordinate a drone assault you essentially need much more expensive “mother” drones that have combustion engines and racks of GPUs running a transformer or newer model.
What needs to happen is the drones can implement strategies with respect to waypoints, and as the drone encounter possible enemy forces their models need to select and upload to the mesh network high resolution pictures of what they perceive, as well as lots of compressed metadata.
The model aboard the “mother” drone—or human commanders—have to decide on a tactical solution to engage the enemy assets they can see/estimate exist. Each of the objections you mention has a tactical solution, and in most cases it will be hugely asymmetric, killing armored vehicles and trained soldiers for a fraction of the cost. It will never be 1 drone against a defense, but enough drones calculated to overwhelm the known defenses.
For example, if the approach path chosen, hugging the terrain, exposes the drones to 3 phalanx guns, and there is a total of 5 seconds of exposure time, and the gun can change targets every 250 ms, then up to 60 drones can be engaged.
If 70 drones are sent, is the cost of 70 drones worth trading for 3 armored vehicles? It the answer is no, you don’t engage and instead seek weaker targets like supply trucks.
I feel like the goalposts keep changing. This is not what was described in the original post.
So a few questions:
How do these drones communicate? Low on the ground P2P communications will have awful range, as will most low energy communication systems. Are they so autonomous they don’t need to communicate at all?
What’s their range? Existing drones only fly for about 20 minutes, and at a speed of about 70 km/h. Their range is usually about 10 to 20 km. Flying low to the ground and having to navigate will imply much lower speeds, and less efficient flight, as will having to run a powerful GPU, and whatever communication system you end up using. They also have to carry a payload capable of destroying a tank. Unlike in Ukraine that requires getting past the ADS (e.g. trophy), so is going to be more sophisticated than a grenade.
Again, how are you actually destroying the tank? Firstly ADS systems are likely to be extremely effective against drones. Secondly tank armour is actually really really difficult to pierce. Drones are only effective because tanks have weak spots where it was considered to be too unlikely that an enemy could target, and it turns out that assumption was wrong. The next generation of tanks will likely not leave such weak spots, possibly by using lots of slat armour, requiring far more sophisticated—and heavier—solutions to destroy a tank using a drone.
Now for this to revolutionise warfare requires that your drone + payload can be mass produced cheaply, but everything above seriously cuts into that. You need sophisticated communication systems, battery, navigation systems, payload etc. if each unit costs 100,000 dollars instead of 1000 dollars, sending 70 to destroy 3 tanks is much less valuable a proposition.
What’s their range? Existing drones only fly for about 20 minutes, and at a speed of about 70 km/h. Their range is usually about 10 to 20 km. Flying low to the ground and having to navigate will imply much lower speeds, and less efficient flight, as will having to run a powerful GPU, and whatever communication system you end up using.
> Again, how are you actually destroying the tank? Firstly ADS systems are likely to be extremely effective against drones. Secondly tank armour is actually really really difficult to pierce.
Standard package. Switchblade 600 has the same warhead as the javelin missile. It’s listed at 33 lbs.
Tanks have a lot of weak spots, for instance from this video you can just look for yourself at the very thin plate on the Abram’s roof that appears to just be rolled homogeneous steel. It would be pretty difficult to armor tanks to withstand attacks from all sides, for one thing someone will just build slightly larger drones.
You need sophisticated communication systems, battery, navigation systems, payload etc. if each unit costs 100,000 dollars instead of 1000 dollars, sending 70 to destroy 3 tanks is much less valuable a proposition.
Currently the cost when built without the inefficiencies of USA contractor system is under $1000.
from the article : “A simple FPV drone costs perhaps $400”
These have every element you mentioned except the GPUs for full autonomy.
And ok, it’s consumer grade, let’s go to milspec, and suppose it does cost 100k a drone*. Well, how much does 3 tanks cost? Each Abrams is listed at 24 million dollars (present day export cost). So 70 drones will be 7 million dollars, killing 72 million in tanks and 9 crewmembers who needed time and money to train, and who will have lost their combat experience.
Note the drones don’t lose their combat experience when destroyed because you can stream the weight deltas from the mother drone to satellite and rehost it on replacement hardware when it gets destroyed.
And as I mentioned:
The biggest objection to why you won’t see these drones immediately is you need powerful onboard GPUs to run a realtime AI control model to get human (or insect) level flight control
Yes that will reduce battery life, and the bigger issue is cost. However the model I am proposing is to use a small GPU on each drone, and:
and to actually coordinate a drone assault you essentially need much more expensive “mother” drones that have combustion engines and racks of GPUs running a transformer or newer model.
Keep all the intelligence in the mother drone, which can be shot down.
* Switchblade 600s are listed at 80k each, are anti tank, and have some level of autonomy.
The mother drone produces the tactical plan and gives the plan to every drone in the swarm. It doesn’t need to have los to execute it although there would be a lack of flexibility during the attack.
The tactical plan would consist of things like waypoints, references images for positioning, and targets. Each drone for that hypothetical “70 vs 3 tanks” engagement has a track to follow, a period of exploiting the terrain, a maximum speed final approach, a specific place on a specific tank to target etc.
The plan can fail if say the target vehicles have moved and additional guns are brought in but the entire process will be a few minutes.
Getting the plan would be done with disposable scouts, these are mid altitude drones with a good laser link to the mother. They upload images of the target area before the shots to shoot them down hit.
Ultimately you are not going to beat this with conventional forces with more air defense. You need a rapidly relocatable force to counter drone swarms that is cheap. Meaning a defense in depth with your own drones.
On the assumption we have self navigating drones that can detect the weakest point in a tank as soon as it gets live of site, and head straight towards it, we would presumably have developed the ability to detect such drones via cameras on the tank as soon as they have line of site.
Than all you need is a bunch of pretty weak guns on turrets mounted on the tank to shoot the drone as soon as they are detected.
Most of these pieces already exist—modern Merkavas have cameras with 360 degrees view, the software to detect a moving drone quickly from a camera is pretty trivial, hardest part is avoiding false positives, but that seems easier than navigating, software to control guns and track targets has existed for a long time.
I assume that mounting a m16 style gun on a turret with 360 by 180 degrees rotation, and sub second rotation to any position is fairly straightforward. Imagine a few of these mounted along the sides of a tank. Most of the time they’re lying flat for protection but can shoot a drone within a second of it becoming visible.
A drone moving at 70 km/h would take 5 seconds to cover the last hundred metres to a tank, plenty of time to shoot it down.
This is mostly proven technology—it’s basically what trophy does, just we can use cheaper bullets against unarmoured drones, and use the theorised AI advances to use cheap cameras instead of more complex solutions, and the ability to distinguish enemy targets that are less obviously projectiles.
The key piece of information missing from all your assumptions is you keep forgetting 3 things:
(1) drones, even 100k+ drones, are cheaper than anything else
(2) drone speed of 100-300 mph, and very low altitude flying, allow for new tactical possibilities the legacy assets do not have. None of the countermeasures you mention will work like you think. The issue isn’t that you can’t strap guns to existing armored vehicles and shoot down drones. The issue is that you cannot concentrate enough forces in one place with existing vehicles to not get annihilated. To stop drones you need defense in depth, multiple perimeters of interceptor drones in a relocatable swarm.
Last ditch guns are not going to save you, because drones can be relocated and concentrated into lethal numbers at the most promising locations on the battlefield.
(3) None of our armchair pontificating, yours or mine, actually matters. What matters is that drones are murderously effective on the battlefield. Historically there were arguments that sounded reasonable by cavalry officers and battleship admirals, long after the technology that replaced them was proven effective on the battlefield. This is what I think you should take away from this discussion: when a major change in technology like this arrives, or anything else, you should update on the data.
the subreddit r/combatfootage has hundreds of drone snuff videos if you wish to see people get murdered by drones, a lot of the data I am using for this analysis comes directly from there.
I think you’re really really badly off base, and let me show you why:
That’s what they are capable of under human control. The actual drone hardware is under $1000.
None of your radar proposals are any use. The drones will fly inches from the ground and are a lot of plastic, and their speeds are low, and will keep terrain between them and the enemy. These are generally not going to be detectable on radar until it’s too late. Radar is not effective now.
The biggest objection to why you won’t see these drones immediately is you need powerful onboard GPUs to run a realtime AI control model to get human (or insect) level flight control, and to actually coordinate a drone assault you essentially need much more expensive “mother” drones that have combustion engines and racks of GPUs running a transformer or newer model.
What needs to happen is the drones can implement strategies with respect to waypoints, and as the drone encounter possible enemy forces their models need to select and upload to the mesh network high resolution pictures of what they perceive, as well as lots of compressed metadata.
The model aboard the “mother” drone—or human commanders—have to decide on a tactical solution to engage the enemy assets they can see/estimate exist. Each of the objections you mention has a tactical solution, and in most cases it will be hugely asymmetric, killing armored vehicles and trained soldiers for a fraction of the cost. It will never be 1 drone against a defense, but enough drones calculated to overwhelm the known defenses.
For example, if the approach path chosen, hugging the terrain, exposes the drones to 3 phalanx guns, and there is a total of 5 seconds of exposure time, and the gun can change targets every 250 ms, then up to 60 drones can be engaged.
If 70 drones are sent, is the cost of 70 drones worth trading for 3 armored vehicles? It the answer is no, you don’t engage and instead seek weaker targets like supply trucks.
I feel like the goalposts keep changing. This is not what was described in the original post.
So a few questions:
How do these drones communicate? Low on the ground P2P communications will have awful range, as will most low energy communication systems. Are they so autonomous they don’t need to communicate at all?
What’s their range? Existing drones only fly for about 20 minutes, and at a speed of about 70 km/h. Their range is usually about 10 to 20 km. Flying low to the ground and having to navigate will imply much lower speeds, and less efficient flight, as will having to run a powerful GPU, and whatever communication system you end up using. They also have to carry a payload capable of destroying a tank. Unlike in Ukraine that requires getting past the ADS (e.g. trophy), so is going to be more sophisticated than a grenade.
Again, how are you actually destroying the tank? Firstly ADS systems are likely to be extremely effective against drones. Secondly tank armour is actually really really difficult to pierce. Drones are only effective because tanks have weak spots where it was considered to be too unlikely that an enemy could target, and it turns out that assumption was wrong. The next generation of tanks will likely not leave such weak spots, possibly by using lots of slat armour, requiring far more sophisticated—and heavier—solutions to destroy a tank using a drone.
Now for this to revolutionise warfare requires that your drone + payload can be mass produced cheaply, but everything above seriously cuts into that. You need sophisticated communication systems, battery, navigation systems, payload etc. if each unit costs 100,000 dollars instead of 1000 dollars, sending 70 to destroy 3 tanks is much less valuable a proposition.
To a mother drone located farther from the enemy at higher altitude, but not high enough to be engaged. Using laser or directional (phased array) RF. This is how drones are fighting in Ukraine right now. See: https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-reservist-describes-flock-ukrainian-fpv-drones-2024-1
Most drones are short range, yes. Some are hybrid with gas engines, like the mother drones or like the below, from https://news.mit.edu/2017/hybrid-drones-carry-heavier-payloads-greater-distances-0804 . These will have hundreds of kilometers of range.
> Again, how are you actually destroying the tank? Firstly ADS systems are likely to be extremely effective against drones. Secondly tank armour is actually really really difficult to pierce.
Standard package. Switchblade 600 has the same warhead as the javelin missile. It’s listed at 33 lbs.
Tanks have a lot of weak spots, for instance from this video you can just look for yourself at the very thin plate on the Abram’s roof that appears to just be rolled homogeneous steel. It would be pretty difficult to armor tanks to withstand attacks from all sides, for one thing someone will just build slightly larger drones.
Currently the cost when built without the inefficiencies of USA contractor system is under $1000.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale
from the article : “A simple FPV drone costs perhaps $400”
These have every element you mentioned except the GPUs for full autonomy.
And ok, it’s consumer grade, let’s go to milspec, and suppose it does cost 100k a drone*. Well, how much does 3 tanks cost? Each Abrams is listed at 24 million dollars (present day export cost). So 70 drones will be 7 million dollars, killing 72 million in tanks and 9 crewmembers who needed time and money to train, and who will have lost their combat experience.
Note the drones don’t lose their combat experience when destroyed because you can stream the weight deltas from the mother drone to satellite and rehost it on replacement hardware when it gets destroyed.
And as I mentioned:
Yes that will reduce battery life, and the bigger issue is cost. However the model I am proposing is to use a small GPU on each drone, and:
Keep all the intelligence in the mother drone, which can be shot down.
* Switchblade 600s are listed at 80k each, are anti tank, and have some level of autonomy.
If it has line of sight to the drones, then it has line of sight to the target, and can be engaged by them.
The mother drone produces the tactical plan and gives the plan to every drone in the swarm. It doesn’t need to have los to execute it although there would be a lack of flexibility during the attack.
The tactical plan would consist of things like waypoints, references images for positioning, and targets. Each drone for that hypothetical “70 vs 3 tanks” engagement has a track to follow, a period of exploiting the terrain, a maximum speed final approach, a specific place on a specific tank to target etc.
The plan can fail if say the target vehicles have moved and additional guns are brought in but the entire process will be a few minutes.
Getting the plan would be done with disposable scouts, these are mid altitude drones with a good laser link to the mother. They upload images of the target area before the shots to shoot them down hit.
Ultimately you are not going to beat this with conventional forces with more air defense. You need a rapidly relocatable force to counter drone swarms that is cheap. Meaning a defense in depth with your own drones.
On the assumption we have self navigating drones that can detect the weakest point in a tank as soon as it gets live of site, and head straight towards it, we would presumably have developed the ability to detect such drones via cameras on the tank as soon as they have line of site.
Than all you need is a bunch of pretty weak guns on turrets mounted on the tank to shoot the drone as soon as they are detected.
Most of these pieces already exist—modern Merkavas have cameras with 360 degrees view, the software to detect a moving drone quickly from a camera is pretty trivial, hardest part is avoiding false positives, but that seems easier than navigating, software to control guns and track targets has existed for a long time.
I assume that mounting a m16 style gun on a turret with 360 by 180 degrees rotation, and sub second rotation to any position is fairly straightforward. Imagine a few of these mounted along the sides of a tank. Most of the time they’re lying flat for protection but can shoot a drone within a second of it becoming visible.
A drone moving at 70 km/h would take 5 seconds to cover the last hundred metres to a tank, plenty of time to shoot it down.
This is mostly proven technology—it’s basically what trophy does, just we can use cheaper bullets against unarmoured drones, and use the theorised AI advances to use cheap cameras instead of more complex solutions, and the ability to distinguish enemy targets that are less obviously projectiles.
The key piece of information missing from all your assumptions is you keep forgetting 3 things:
(1) drones, even 100k+ drones, are cheaper than anything else
(2) drone speed of 100-300 mph, and very low altitude flying, allow for new tactical possibilities the legacy assets do not have. None of the countermeasures you mention will work like you think. The issue isn’t that you can’t strap guns to existing armored vehicles and shoot down drones. The issue is that you cannot concentrate enough forces in one place with existing vehicles to not get annihilated. To stop drones you need defense in depth, multiple perimeters of interceptor drones in a relocatable swarm.
Last ditch guns are not going to save you, because drones can be relocated and concentrated into lethal numbers at the most promising locations on the battlefield.
(3) None of our armchair pontificating, yours or mine, actually matters. What matters is that drones are murderously effective on the battlefield. Historically there were arguments that sounded reasonable by cavalry officers and battleship admirals, long after the technology that replaced them was proven effective on the battlefield. This is what I think you should take away from this discussion: when a major change in technology like this arrives, or anything else, you should update on the data.
the subreddit r/combatfootage has hundreds of drone snuff videos if you wish to see people get murdered by drones, a lot of the data I am using for this analysis comes directly from there.