Yeah I’m definitely describing something as a binary when it’s really a spectrum. (I was oversimplifying since I didn’t think it mattered for that particular context.)
In the context of AI, I don’t know what the difference is (if any) between engineering and science. You’re right that I was off-base there…
…But I do think that there’s a spectrum from ingenuity / insight to grunt-work.
So I’m bringing up a possible scenario where near-future AI gets progressively less useful as you move towards the ingenuity side of that spectrum, and where changing that situation (i.e., automating ingenuity) itself requires a lot of ingenuity, posing a chicken-and-egg problem / bottleneck that limits the scope of rapid near-future recursive AI progress.
Paradigm shifts do happen, but I don’t think we need them between here and AGI.
Yeah I’m definitely describing something as a binary when it’s really a spectrum. (I was oversimplifying since I didn’t think it mattered for that particular context.)
In the context of AI, I don’t know what the difference is (if any) between engineering and science. You’re right that I was off-base there…
…But I do think that there’s a spectrum from ingenuity / insight to grunt-work.
So I’m bringing up a possible scenario where near-future AI gets progressively less useful as you move towards the ingenuity side of that spectrum, and where changing that situation (i.e., automating ingenuity) itself requires a lot of ingenuity, posing a chicken-and-egg problem / bottleneck that limits the scope of rapid near-future recursive AI progress.
Perhaps! Time will tell :)