I think I’m objecting to (as Eli wrote) “collapsing all [AI] research progress into a single “speed” and forecasting based on that”. There can be different types of AI R&D, and we might be able to speed up some types without speeding up other types.
…is parallel to what we see in other kinds of automation.
The technology of today has been much better at automating the production of clocks than the production of haircuts. Thus, 2024 technology is great at automating the production of some physical things but only slightly helpful for automating the production of some other physical things.
By the same token, different AI R&D projects are trying to “produce” different types of IP. Thus, it’s similarly possible that 2029 AI technology will be great at automating the production of some types of AI-related IP but only slightly helpful for automating the production of some other types of AI-related IP.
I just wanted to add that this hypothesis, i.e.
…is parallel to what we see in other kinds of automation.
The technology of today has been much better at automating the production of clocks than the production of haircuts. Thus, 2024 technology is great at automating the production of some physical things but only slightly helpful for automating the production of some other physical things.
By the same token, different AI R&D projects are trying to “produce” different types of IP. Thus, it’s similarly possible that 2029 AI technology will be great at automating the production of some types of AI-related IP but only slightly helpful for automating the production of some other types of AI-related IP.