I agree with Rob Bensinger’s response here, plus it’s just a really weird use of “insane”, like saying that Japan would have been insane not to attack Pearl Harbor after the US imposed an oil embargo on them, because “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Thinking that way only makes sense if becoming a world or regional hegemon was your one and only goal, but how did that become the standard for sanity of world leaders around here?
It’s not a weird use. It is a completely normal one: becoming the hegemon is the avowed goal and so making choices which drop the odds of success so drastically raise questions about the thought process, which in this case I find much better explained by simply mistaken beliefs and desires on Xi’s part combined with ordinary sanity. I have already explained at length why I think those beliefs are mistaken, and I also think the desires are bad: do I think China (in the sense of its population as a whole) is better off for Xi’s powerhunger, or that China would be better off for launching a scaling Manhattan Project? Certainly not: in my opinion, Xi’s reign has made the Chinese people substantially worse off than they would have been under a more status quo leader, and Xi has probably single-handedly curtailed their long-term growth prospects & condemned them to permanent middle income status as they begin to enter a Japan-style malaise, in addition to authoritarian disasters like the Uighurs. But many Chinese believe otherwise now, and endorse further questing for hegemony, and they & Xi are in charge, not you, and desire what they desire, not what you desire—you (and Rob) are projecting your own preferences and moralizing here, instead of trying to understand what is going on.
so making choices which drop the odds of success so drastically
I wouldn’t say “drastically” here so maybe this is the crux. I think the chances of success if China does make an all out push for semiconductors is very low given its own resources and likely US and allies’ responses (e.g. they could collectively way outspend China on their own subsidies). I could express this as <1% chance of having a world leading semi fab 10 years from now and <5% chance 20 years from now, no matter what China chooses to do at this point. If hegemony was the only goal then even a 1% chance would be worth it, but “drastically” makes me think maybe that’s not what you’re saying. These are off the cuff numbers so I’m pretty open to changing my mind about them, but seem reasonable given what I know about China’s research capabilities and what it took for the world to reach its current level of semiconductor technology.
I agree with Rob Bensinger’s response here, plus it’s just a really weird use of “insane”, like saying that Japan would have been insane not to attack Pearl Harbor after the US imposed an oil embargo on them, because “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Thinking that way only makes sense if becoming a world or regional hegemon was your one and only goal, but how did that become the standard for sanity of world leaders around here?
It’s not a weird use. It is a completely normal one: becoming the hegemon is the avowed goal and so making choices which drop the odds of success so drastically raise questions about the thought process, which in this case I find much better explained by simply mistaken beliefs and desires on Xi’s part combined with ordinary sanity. I have already explained at length why I think those beliefs are mistaken, and I also think the desires are bad: do I think China (in the sense of its population as a whole) is better off for Xi’s powerhunger, or that China would be better off for launching a scaling Manhattan Project? Certainly not: in my opinion, Xi’s reign has made the Chinese people substantially worse off than they would have been under a more status quo leader, and Xi has probably single-handedly curtailed their long-term growth prospects & condemned them to permanent middle income status as they begin to enter a Japan-style malaise, in addition to authoritarian disasters like the Uighurs. But many Chinese believe otherwise now, and endorse further questing for hegemony, and they & Xi are in charge, not you, and desire what they desire, not what you desire—you (and Rob) are projecting your own preferences and moralizing here, instead of trying to understand what is going on.
I wouldn’t say “drastically” here so maybe this is the crux. I think the chances of success if China does make an all out push for semiconductors is very low given its own resources and likely US and allies’ responses (e.g. they could collectively way outspend China on their own subsidies). I could express this as <1% chance of having a world leading semi fab 10 years from now and <5% chance 20 years from now, no matter what China chooses to do at this point. If hegemony was the only goal then even a 1% chance would be worth it, but “drastically” makes me think maybe that’s not what you’re saying. These are off the cuff numbers so I’m pretty open to changing my mind about them, but seem reasonable given what I know about China’s research capabilities and what it took for the world to reach its current level of semiconductor technology.