This reminds me of a recent tangent on Kelly betting. Apparently it’s claimed that the unusalness of this optimum betting strategy shows that you should treat risk and ignorance differently—but of course the difference between the two situations is entirely accounted for by two different conditional probability distributions. So you can sort of think of situations (that is, the probability distribution describing possible outcomes) as “risk-like” or “ignorance-like.”
If you’re talking about what I think you’re talking about, then by “risk”, you mean “frequentist probability distribution over outcomes”, and by “ignorance”, you mean “Bayesian probability distribution over what the correct frequentist probability distribution over outcomes is”, which is not the way Luke was defining the terms.
This reminds me of a recent tangent on Kelly betting. Apparently it’s claimed that the unusalness of this optimum betting strategy shows that you should treat risk and ignorance differently—but of course the difference between the two situations is entirely accounted for by two different conditional probability distributions. So you can sort of think of situations (that is, the probability distribution describing possible outcomes) as “risk-like” or “ignorance-like.”
If you’re talking about what I think you’re talking about, then by “risk”, you mean “frequentist probability distribution over outcomes”, and by “ignorance”, you mean “Bayesian probability distribution over what the correct frequentist probability distribution over outcomes is”, which is not the way Luke was defining the terms.