The Credence Calibration Game
The idea is to answer a bunch of questions like “How confident are you that Baltimore is larger than Dallas?”. The goal is to get better at confidence calibration. Eg. when you say you’re 70% sure you end up being correct about 70% of the time.
Nice resource! It reminds me about the Chapter 3 of Adventures in Cognitive Biases.
Is there anything similar to The Credence Calibration Game but works online and has some recent facts?
It would be cool to be able to replay some closed Metaculus questions and see how well would you do against that!
The Clearer Thinking Calibrate Your Judgement tool seems worth checking out.
https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/2019/10/16/practice-making-accurate-predictions-with-our-new-tool
The Credence Calibration Game
The idea is to answer a bunch of questions like “How confident are you that Baltimore is larger than Dallas?”. The goal is to get better at confidence calibration. Eg. when you say you’re 70% sure you end up being correct about 70% of the time.
Nice resource! It reminds me about the Chapter 3 of Adventures in Cognitive Biases.
Is there anything similar to The Credence Calibration Game but works online and has some recent facts?
It would be cool to be able to replay some closed Metaculus questions and see how well would you do against that!
The Clearer Thinking Calibrate Your Judgement tool seems worth checking out.
https://www.clearerthinking.org/post/2019/10/16/practice-making-accurate-predictions-with-our-new-tool